Saturday, October 15, 2005
Hey look, I'm back
I don't know if I'm going to be posting regularly ever again, but I thought I'd do those that still link to me the service of posting again.
The White Sox are now one win away from their first World Series since 1959. This is clearly the biggest month for the franchise in the past 40 years. Five more wins and they've broken the drought...not the curse, but the drought of 88 years. They have 10 games now to win those next five. The year in the name of this very blog will be the time before last, instead of the last time that we won the World Series. This is huge.
The White Sox, even if they win no more games, will never be the same as a franchise. For the first time in a long time, they are on the national scene for an extended time in October. This year is going to help the franchise for years to come. I don't think we can comprehend all of this year, but I'm sure if we revisit this in a few years, it will bear out.
So Go Sox! And on to the World Series...and through it!
The White Sox are now one win away from their first World Series since 1959. This is clearly the biggest month for the franchise in the past 40 years. Five more wins and they've broken the drought...not the curse, but the drought of 88 years. They have 10 games now to win those next five. The year in the name of this very blog will be the time before last, instead of the last time that we won the World Series. This is huge.
The White Sox, even if they win no more games, will never be the same as a franchise. For the first time in a long time, they are on the national scene for an extended time in October. This year is going to help the franchise for years to come. I don't think we can comprehend all of this year, but I'm sure if we revisit this in a few years, it will bear out.
So Go Sox! And on to the World Series...and through it!
Sunday, April 24, 2005
Situational hitting leading to early success
Despite being 22nd in baseball in OPS, the White Sox are 14th in runs scored. What is the cause of this success? Situational hitting.
Now in the past, I've been one to downplay its importance, but the results have shown that it has been, in fact, vital to the White Sox success this year.
Two stats that demonstrate this are the number of times the Sox have rolled into a double play and the number of team Sac. Flies. The White Sox are the only team in baseball that has more sacrifice flies (12) than double plays (7). That's quite a large difference. They also lead the majors in most sac. flies and fewest double plays. Juan Uribe and Carl Everett are 1-2 in the majors with 5 and 4 sacrifice flies respectively. The major league leader in this category in 2004 was Mark Lorretta with 16. Uribe's nearly a third of the way there through about one ninth of the season.
These numbers have led to the White Sox being able to score runs, even when the hits are not falling and have contributed greatly to the team's early success.
Now in the past, I've been one to downplay its importance, but the results have shown that it has been, in fact, vital to the White Sox success this year.
Two stats that demonstrate this are the number of times the Sox have rolled into a double play and the number of team Sac. Flies. The White Sox are the only team in baseball that has more sacrifice flies (12) than double plays (7). That's quite a large difference. They also lead the majors in most sac. flies and fewest double plays. Juan Uribe and Carl Everett are 1-2 in the majors with 5 and 4 sacrifice flies respectively. The major league leader in this category in 2004 was Mark Lorretta with 16. Uribe's nearly a third of the way there through about one ninth of the season.
These numbers have led to the White Sox being able to score runs, even when the hits are not falling and have contributed greatly to the team's early success.
Saturday, April 23, 2005
Amazing times on the South Side
With the White Sox' 3-2 victory tonight in extra innings against the Kansas City Royals, they are now 14-4. Yes, that's correct, Fourteen and four.
Let's put this in perspective for just one moment:
This is the best record through 18 games in franchise history. All 105 years of it. Now, I don't know if that says more about this team or the pathetic history of this franchise, but still that is damn good.
Also, the White Sox are the only 14 win team in baseball. The next closest team only has 12 (Los Angeles Dodgers). The White Sox are already 6.5 games ahead of the Detroit Tigers, whom many people picked to win the division, 6 games ahead of Cleveland, whom more people picked to win the division and 3.5 games ahead of the Twins, whom many people picked to win the World Series, let alone the division. The White Sox have not been this far in front since the 2000 team ran away with the division. This whole thing is absolutely incredible.
Outside of the AL Central, the furthest team back is the Colorado Rockies who are 6 back of the Dodgers, yet the Kansas City Royals are already 9 games back. 9 games back 18 games in is not a pretty place to be in.
Now let's analyze what's brought the White Sox to this point. It's quite clear that the starting pitching staff has been the primary reason why the White Sox are in this position. The cumulative ERA is 2.88 right now. The worst on the team now is Contreras at 3.48. Everyone's been solid, almost day in and day out. Garland and Buehrle are already both at 3 wins. White Sox fans have to like what they're seeing so far out of this bunch.
Another large part of the equation are the contributions of various hitters. Podsednik, a guy whom I didnt think would have a great year, but left open the door due to his troubles at Miller Park in both 2003 and 2004, has a .327 AVG with a .393 OBP right now and 9 steals with only one caught stealing. This is exactly what you want out of your leadoff hitter. If he can keep any semblence of this up, then it doesnt matter what Carlos Lee does because the White Sox won this trade based on added depth. Also, Uribe's been hitting very well. .302 average, but a low OBP. Yet, he's had some important bunts and many sacrifice flies (5 already, to match his total from last year in the first 18 games) in close games when we needed him to come through. Crede's been excellent also, hitting .333 and in the midst of a 14 game hit streak. Finally, Iguchi has been surprisingly good early. Though I'm slightly dissapointed in the lack of power and the relatively few walks I've seen from him, it's hard to be too dissapointed in a .305 average from a guy coming over from Japan.
There have been a few worrisome parts of the bullpen. You really cant blame Vizcaino that much for his inflated ERA, he was running on empty and could not be replaced due to an empty bullpen. He's been fairly solid otherwise (he gave up the game tying hit tonight, but he's been a decent middle reliever). Takatsu has been shaky, like last year's start. Cotts has been Cotts-like, though he looked better tonight. But on the flip side, Marte looks a lot better than last year already. Politte looks like a whole new pitcher and is locating his fastball extremely well. Hermanson looks like the reliever he was before the end of the year blowup last year. On the whole, the relief corps has been good enough to win us 8 one run ballgames, and there's nothing wrong with that. Winning 1-run ballgames with a good bullpen is the only real way to outperform pythagorean record by a significant amount and the White Sox are doing just that.
The best part is that they're doing this in spite of Dye, Konerko, Rowand and Everett. If one part falters, there are other parts that could pick up the slack and keep us on this pace. All in all, it's just totally incredible that the White Sox have started this way. I can only hope that they can keep this up.
Let's put this in perspective for just one moment:
This is the best record through 18 games in franchise history. All 105 years of it. Now, I don't know if that says more about this team or the pathetic history of this franchise, but still that is damn good.
Also, the White Sox are the only 14 win team in baseball. The next closest team only has 12 (Los Angeles Dodgers). The White Sox are already 6.5 games ahead of the Detroit Tigers, whom many people picked to win the division, 6 games ahead of Cleveland, whom more people picked to win the division and 3.5 games ahead of the Twins, whom many people picked to win the World Series, let alone the division. The White Sox have not been this far in front since the 2000 team ran away with the division. This whole thing is absolutely incredible.
Outside of the AL Central, the furthest team back is the Colorado Rockies who are 6 back of the Dodgers, yet the Kansas City Royals are already 9 games back. 9 games back 18 games in is not a pretty place to be in.
Now let's analyze what's brought the White Sox to this point. It's quite clear that the starting pitching staff has been the primary reason why the White Sox are in this position. The cumulative ERA is 2.88 right now. The worst on the team now is Contreras at 3.48. Everyone's been solid, almost day in and day out. Garland and Buehrle are already both at 3 wins. White Sox fans have to like what they're seeing so far out of this bunch.
Another large part of the equation are the contributions of various hitters. Podsednik, a guy whom I didnt think would have a great year, but left open the door due to his troubles at Miller Park in both 2003 and 2004, has a .327 AVG with a .393 OBP right now and 9 steals with only one caught stealing. This is exactly what you want out of your leadoff hitter. If he can keep any semblence of this up, then it doesnt matter what Carlos Lee does because the White Sox won this trade based on added depth. Also, Uribe's been hitting very well. .302 average, but a low OBP. Yet, he's had some important bunts and many sacrifice flies (5 already, to match his total from last year in the first 18 games) in close games when we needed him to come through. Crede's been excellent also, hitting .333 and in the midst of a 14 game hit streak. Finally, Iguchi has been surprisingly good early. Though I'm slightly dissapointed in the lack of power and the relatively few walks I've seen from him, it's hard to be too dissapointed in a .305 average from a guy coming over from Japan.
There have been a few worrisome parts of the bullpen. You really cant blame Vizcaino that much for his inflated ERA, he was running on empty and could not be replaced due to an empty bullpen. He's been fairly solid otherwise (he gave up the game tying hit tonight, but he's been a decent middle reliever). Takatsu has been shaky, like last year's start. Cotts has been Cotts-like, though he looked better tonight. But on the flip side, Marte looks a lot better than last year already. Politte looks like a whole new pitcher and is locating his fastball extremely well. Hermanson looks like the reliever he was before the end of the year blowup last year. On the whole, the relief corps has been good enough to win us 8 one run ballgames, and there's nothing wrong with that. Winning 1-run ballgames with a good bullpen is the only real way to outperform pythagorean record by a significant amount and the White Sox are doing just that.
The best part is that they're doing this in spite of Dye, Konerko, Rowand and Everett. If one part falters, there are other parts that could pick up the slack and keep us on this pace. All in all, it's just totally incredible that the White Sox have started this way. I can only hope that they can keep this up.
Saturday, April 16, 2005
Buehrle's amazing game
9 Innings
3 Hits--All to Ichiro
1 BB
1 ER
the kicker:
Career high 12 K's
And it was all over in an Hour 39 minutes.
Mark Buehrle was amazing today. There's nothing else that can be said except maybe that he was outstanding or brilliant.
If the White Sox are going to win this year with pitching, it's all going to start at the top with Buehrle. I think he's on his way to a career year in 2005...if he can keep the ball down. So far only one home run allowed, which is why he's pitched so well so far this year. I like what I've seen so far from him...and the rest of the rotation on that note and it should be exciting to see what this team has in store for us on the pitching end of things for the rest of the year.
On another note, Paul Konerko is now the Major League Home Run leader after belting two out of the yard for a grand total of 6. He has four other non-Home Run hits. I don't think anyone really expects it, but wouldnt it be cool if Konerko actually managed to best his home run total of last year? It's not out of the question, especially if he can hit a few more out on the road, as 27 of his 41 came at home. He has three on the road and three at home so far this year.
Overall, I'm extremely happy that this team is 8-3 right now and tied for the Major League lead in wins with Minnesota at 8. It would be nice if we actually could be ahead of the Twins, but who knows? The wild card actually might come out of the AL Central this year.
If the pitching can keep something resembling this up, then I would probably revise my 85 win prediction to a much higher total as I feared the starting pitching might only be mediocre this year. We shall see, however. Only 11 games have been played so far and many of them have been relatively cold, so I won't put too much stock in 11 games, but I think that it's nice to see what every pitcher can do at their best (or close to their best).
3 Hits--All to Ichiro
1 BB
1 ER
the kicker:
Career high 12 K's
And it was all over in an Hour 39 minutes.
Mark Buehrle was amazing today. There's nothing else that can be said except maybe that he was outstanding or brilliant.
If the White Sox are going to win this year with pitching, it's all going to start at the top with Buehrle. I think he's on his way to a career year in 2005...if he can keep the ball down. So far only one home run allowed, which is why he's pitched so well so far this year. I like what I've seen so far from him...and the rest of the rotation on that note and it should be exciting to see what this team has in store for us on the pitching end of things for the rest of the year.
On another note, Paul Konerko is now the Major League Home Run leader after belting two out of the yard for a grand total of 6. He has four other non-Home Run hits. I don't think anyone really expects it, but wouldnt it be cool if Konerko actually managed to best his home run total of last year? It's not out of the question, especially if he can hit a few more out on the road, as 27 of his 41 came at home. He has three on the road and three at home so far this year.
Overall, I'm extremely happy that this team is 8-3 right now and tied for the Major League lead in wins with Minnesota at 8. It would be nice if we actually could be ahead of the Twins, but who knows? The wild card actually might come out of the AL Central this year.
If the pitching can keep something resembling this up, then I would probably revise my 85 win prediction to a much higher total as I feared the starting pitching might only be mediocre this year. We shall see, however. Only 11 games have been played so far and many of them have been relatively cold, so I won't put too much stock in 11 games, but I think that it's nice to see what every pitcher can do at their best (or close to their best).
Sunday, April 03, 2005
I'm back
Sorry for the extra-long break. It was a combination of vacation and being ultra-busy, but I'm back in time to post my predicted standings for the upcoming season. I apologize for not having the time to post my predictions in more detail, but I'm going to try my best to make some fair comments on each team, but here we go:
AL East
New York-Additions of Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright will benefit this team, even if Wright and Pavano come down significantly from their career bests last year and dont pitch to their contracts. They bolstered their bullpen with Felix Rodriguez and it's much deeper now, so Gordon and Rivera will have more in them down the stretch. Their offense was never a question and wont be in 2005, especially if Giambi bounces back to a certain degree like I think he will. This team will probably win the most games in the AL by a significant margin, being the only team to win 100 or more.
Boston-Many questions on the starting pitching staff. Schilling will be fine, but Wells is old and in the decline. Clement will struggle with his control more in the more offense-oriented American League. Some of their hitters will come off of their better season last year and we've got a team here which is still great, but not the best in the AL. I see them finishing closer to 90 wins than to 100.
Baltimore-They can definitely score runs and that's what makes them the favorite in the race for third place in the AL East. Sosa, Palmeiro, Lopez, Mora and Tejada form one of the better power cores in baseball. The pitching is still a major concern, but it should be slightly improved over last year's group, but we're not talking by a lot. This team will end up on the right side of .500 this year, but the pitching will keep them from threating the Red Sox for second.
Toronto-The return of Halladay for a full, healthy season and of Vernon Wells will help this team. So will the addition of Corey Koskie. It will be enough to propel them past the Devil Rays, but not that much further.
Tampa Bay-After not finishing last in 2004, I see them returning to the basement of the AL East. They only finished three ahead of Toronto and I do not think that they have improved a whole lot. Player development could have a positive impact on this team, but I just don't see them avoiding the basement with Toronto's improvements.
AL Central
Minnesota-In all likelihood, the Twins will remain atop the AL Central in 2005. The return of Joe Mauer and the use of Morneau for a whole season will be helpful, but there are some things to watch out for. They lost the left side of their infield and their new members are less than inspiring names (Cuddyer and Bartlett). 2B will still be occupied by Punto and Rivas. Overall the offense probably won't be all that great and there will be great reliance on the pitching staff. Santana might not regress a whole lot, but Radke will after having a career year. So too will Joe Nathan. They still win the division, but with less authority, coming in at about 87-88 wins, leaving the door open if Chicago or Cleveland gets inspired. After outperforming their expected for three straight years, they are a good candidate to underperform, but it's hard to pick against the 3-time reigning champs.
Chicago-The hitting will be better than many expect, but the pitching won't live up to the potential...at least the projected pitching staff. Buehrle will pitch at a near Cy Young level, but Garcia will be good, but not great. His ERA will be in the 4-4.25 range. El Duque will stay relatively healthy, but will only be mediocre. Garland will be his average self but Contreras will be a disaster. McCarthy is called up by mid-June for some reason or another and competes for the ROY award. The bullpen will be decent, but not shut down. I see about 85-86 wins with a decent chance of winning the division, but they clearly will not be the favorites.
Cleveland-Their hitting is excellent and will be in the upper tier of baseball, but they just have too many questions on their pitching staff to finish above the Twins or White Sox in my view. Westbrook's losses will more than offset Cliff Lee's gains, Sabathia won't breakout, Millwood does not impress me and Elarton plain old sucks. This rotation is an overrated bunch in my view. The bullpen is not improved all that much. I just dont see how this team is going to make large gains on the 80 wins of last year. I think somewhere in the 83-84 range is right about right and if a few things fall their way, they could finish second. If a few more things fall their way, they could win the division, but I dont see their chance as being better than the White Sox' chances, hence the pick of third.
Detroit-This team has been far overrated by many prognosticators. I just dont see how this team is better than the three above. Everyone talks about how Bonderman might break out this year and how that will help their pitching staff, but all of the other teams already have reliable front of the rotation starters. The Bullpen is not as good as advertised as Percival isn't a top-tier reliever, Farnsworth is horribly inconsistant and Urbina looked off last year. Urbina is probably the best of the trio, though. The offense is good, not great and the addition of Magglio wont change that. They'll improve to about 77-78 wins, but not much more.
Kansas City-It will be nice to see full years from Greinke and Dejesus (and maybe even Mike Sweeney), but there's not a lot to like here. They'll probably lose about 95-100 once again and will be the worst team in the AL by a significant margin. Few teams in baseball have less going for them than the Royals in 2005.
AL West
California Angels of Arizona
Oakland
Seattle
Texas
I've previewed this division previously. I flipped around Seattle and Texas though because I think Seattle's pitching will rebound and Texas will be hurt by a large regression in their bullpen and the total lack of pitching all around. They will be pretty close, but I think Seattle has the edge.
NL East
Atlanta-You just can't pick against this team. Hudson will contend for Cy Young this year. I'm a little unsure about Smoltz, but that has more to do with my not having seen much of him this spring and monitoring his progress. The corner outfielders will be shameful, but improvements from Chipper, Andruw, Giles and Furcal will partially offset that. This is a team that won by 10 games last year, so it might be closer, but they'll find a way, as they always do.
New York-I like their rotation as one of the better ones in the National League. It's pretty solid from top to bottom. Beltran and Pedro will propel them to second place, with a chance of winning the division. Pedro is my NL Cy Young pick this year and the lack of Bonds for a long time might help Beltran finish among the leaders in the NL MVP race. Kaz Matsui will improve and a full year of David Wright will be very helpful to the Mets.
Florida-Yes they got Delgado and I also like the pickup of Al Leiter, but the lack of a decent bullpen outside of Mota is going to ground their chances of winning the NL East unless the rotation can stay healthy for the whole year, some that has yet to be seen. Don't get me wrong, they're pretty close to the Mets in my view, but I just like the Mets a little better.
Philadelphia-I just cannot get enthused about this Phillies team, even though they have a lot of talent at many positions. It's probably just as likely that they finish fourth as them finishing 2nd, but I just can't pick the Phillies over the Marlins or Mets. Something always seems to go wrong with them. If nothing goes wrong for the Phillies, they could win the division. They are definitely the most likely team to win their division of all of the teams that I'm picking to finish this low--the NL East is just that close--, but for predictions sake, something inside tells me something is going to wrong with them.
Washington DC-This is something that we can all agree on. They have some nice talent, like Livan, Nick Johnson, Vidro and Jose Guillen, but they dont compare to the other four teams in the division. Guzman and Castilla wont prove to be very helpful additions and will prove to be money thrown down the drain. The Expos will struggle even more to score runs in the Shea-like RFK stadium.
NL Central
St. Louis-Sure they lost Renteria, Woody Williams and Mike Matheny, but they werent all that valuable anyways. Their losses in the bullpen, however, will prove to be problematic to a certain degree. They're probably still a 93-95 win team and the class of this division, but they could encounter problems if they have serious rotation injury problems or if Larry Walker cant stay healthy for most of the year.
Chicago-They have a lineup that's on the fringes of the upper-tier and they have arguably the best front three in baseball after the breakout of the Big 3, but that still wont lead them to a division title. Prior is going to struggle more than many think as he continues to have lingering injury problems and only puts together 2 dominant months. Maddux will continue to give up the longball a ton and will decline some more. The fifth spot in the rotation will become a bigger problem than many anticipate when Rusch fails to meet expectations. The bullpen will be bad to mediocre. If Hawkins is given the closer's job, it will be the latter, if not, the former. Despite my tone, I still think they're an 87-89 win team and will be in Wild Card Contention again in 2005.
Cincinatti-Pitching additions will be more helpful than many realize. Kearns will stay healthy and they'll have a great outfield of Kearns, Dunn (who will lead baseball in Homers with 55 or so) and Pena. They'll score runs and give up a lot, resulting in a record near .500, but I think they can get over the .500 hump this year.
Houston-The loss of Wade Miller, Carlos Beltran and Jeff Kent are going to be a bitter pill for this team to swallow, combined with the decline of Bagwell and Biggio. They were a fun team to watch last year, but without a bullpen, with a good, not great rotation and with a lot of question marks, they will fall from where they were last year by a significant margin.
Milwaukee-They had a fair amount of things going right for them last year and they still won only 67 games. I'm not so sure how they're going to be a whole lot better, though they should be better than Pittsburgh. Capellan is a big wild card. If he can step into the rotation and pitch well, this team could turn out better than expected, but that's less likely than it sounds. Lee will help this team score more runs.
Pittsburgh-Didn't improve a lot or lose a lot. They'll be fighting with Milwaukee to keep from being the only 6th place team in baseball, but it's a race they'll probably lose.
NL West
San Francisco-I think Bonds will be back by mid-June to Early July and that he'll be back to his old ways at that time and that sums up most of what you need to know about why I'm picking the Giants. The other things include a full year from Noah Lowry, an improvement from Jerome Williams, the excellent addition of Armando Benitez and the addition of Alou. Alou wont come close to matching his home run total, but he'll still be pretty good considering he'll be playing half his games at SBC Park
Los Angeles-They're not that much worse than San Francisco and this should be a major battle again, but the bullpen that they've prided themselves on for a few years now just isnt that great. Brazoban and Gagne will be lights out, but getting there will be a problem. The rotation will be solid, but not incredible considering Dodger Stadium. Hee Sop Choi will have a breakout year and Drew was a great addition, but Beltre powered them past San Francisco last year. If Drew gets hurt, then their chances of winning the division are severely diminished.
San Diego-I remain unconvinced that this team has what it takes to win the division. The pitching should be decent, but sometimes even the best pitching staff can't overcome a terrible hitting team (see 2003 LA Dodgers). They really didnt add any offense and I dont see it improving much, given their ballpark. Woody Williams wont be as good as David Wells was last year. They'll finish 3rd again, but it will be a close third.
Arizona-They spent a lot of money and finally look like a major league team, but they wont be contending in 2005. I like Javy and Webb, but Ortiz got waaaaaaay too much money. The loss of RJ will hurt them more than many are talking about. Shawn Green will help their offense though. Luis Gonzalez is a big wild card in terms of health and performance. He could improve or he might even need to contemplate retirement. This team will be watchable in 2005, but it wont be a good team.
Colorado-This team will hit. This team will not pitch. You could say that about every single Colorado Rockies team ever for the most part, but it still holds true with this team. They're a worse team than Arizona because Arizona looks like a medicore to bad major league team while Colorado only looks like half a major league team (and you can guess which half).
Playoffs and Awards:
AL Wild Card-Oakland
NL Wild Card-New York Mets
AL Playoffs
New York vs Oakland: New York in 3
Minnesota vs Anaheim: Minnesota in 5
New York vs Minnesota: New York in 7
NL Playoffs
Braves vs Giants: Braves in 4
Mets vs Cardinals: Cardinals in 5
Braves vs Cardinals: Braves in 6
World Series: New York over Atlanta in 5
AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL Cy Young: Randy Johnson
NL Cy Young: Pedro Martinez
AL Rookie of the Year: Brandon McCarthy
NL Rookie of the Year: Jeff Francis
So there ya go, a few surprises in the Wild Cards, but otherwise not a ton of surprises with the Yankees returning to World Series victory. Note that these predictions arent to be taken extremely seriously as there's a ton of luck involved in baseball as well as unforeseen factors, trades, etc.
AL East
New York-Additions of Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright will benefit this team, even if Wright and Pavano come down significantly from their career bests last year and dont pitch to their contracts. They bolstered their bullpen with Felix Rodriguez and it's much deeper now, so Gordon and Rivera will have more in them down the stretch. Their offense was never a question and wont be in 2005, especially if Giambi bounces back to a certain degree like I think he will. This team will probably win the most games in the AL by a significant margin, being the only team to win 100 or more.
Boston-Many questions on the starting pitching staff. Schilling will be fine, but Wells is old and in the decline. Clement will struggle with his control more in the more offense-oriented American League. Some of their hitters will come off of their better season last year and we've got a team here which is still great, but not the best in the AL. I see them finishing closer to 90 wins than to 100.
Baltimore-They can definitely score runs and that's what makes them the favorite in the race for third place in the AL East. Sosa, Palmeiro, Lopez, Mora and Tejada form one of the better power cores in baseball. The pitching is still a major concern, but it should be slightly improved over last year's group, but we're not talking by a lot. This team will end up on the right side of .500 this year, but the pitching will keep them from threating the Red Sox for second.
Toronto-The return of Halladay for a full, healthy season and of Vernon Wells will help this team. So will the addition of Corey Koskie. It will be enough to propel them past the Devil Rays, but not that much further.
Tampa Bay-After not finishing last in 2004, I see them returning to the basement of the AL East. They only finished three ahead of Toronto and I do not think that they have improved a whole lot. Player development could have a positive impact on this team, but I just don't see them avoiding the basement with Toronto's improvements.
AL Central
Minnesota-In all likelihood, the Twins will remain atop the AL Central in 2005. The return of Joe Mauer and the use of Morneau for a whole season will be helpful, but there are some things to watch out for. They lost the left side of their infield and their new members are less than inspiring names (Cuddyer and Bartlett). 2B will still be occupied by Punto and Rivas. Overall the offense probably won't be all that great and there will be great reliance on the pitching staff. Santana might not regress a whole lot, but Radke will after having a career year. So too will Joe Nathan. They still win the division, but with less authority, coming in at about 87-88 wins, leaving the door open if Chicago or Cleveland gets inspired. After outperforming their expected for three straight years, they are a good candidate to underperform, but it's hard to pick against the 3-time reigning champs.
Chicago-The hitting will be better than many expect, but the pitching won't live up to the potential...at least the projected pitching staff. Buehrle will pitch at a near Cy Young level, but Garcia will be good, but not great. His ERA will be in the 4-4.25 range. El Duque will stay relatively healthy, but will only be mediocre. Garland will be his average self but Contreras will be a disaster. McCarthy is called up by mid-June for some reason or another and competes for the ROY award. The bullpen will be decent, but not shut down. I see about 85-86 wins with a decent chance of winning the division, but they clearly will not be the favorites.
Cleveland-Their hitting is excellent and will be in the upper tier of baseball, but they just have too many questions on their pitching staff to finish above the Twins or White Sox in my view. Westbrook's losses will more than offset Cliff Lee's gains, Sabathia won't breakout, Millwood does not impress me and Elarton plain old sucks. This rotation is an overrated bunch in my view. The bullpen is not improved all that much. I just dont see how this team is going to make large gains on the 80 wins of last year. I think somewhere in the 83-84 range is right about right and if a few things fall their way, they could finish second. If a few more things fall their way, they could win the division, but I dont see their chance as being better than the White Sox' chances, hence the pick of third.
Detroit-This team has been far overrated by many prognosticators. I just dont see how this team is better than the three above. Everyone talks about how Bonderman might break out this year and how that will help their pitching staff, but all of the other teams already have reliable front of the rotation starters. The Bullpen is not as good as advertised as Percival isn't a top-tier reliever, Farnsworth is horribly inconsistant and Urbina looked off last year. Urbina is probably the best of the trio, though. The offense is good, not great and the addition of Magglio wont change that. They'll improve to about 77-78 wins, but not much more.
Kansas City-It will be nice to see full years from Greinke and Dejesus (and maybe even Mike Sweeney), but there's not a lot to like here. They'll probably lose about 95-100 once again and will be the worst team in the AL by a significant margin. Few teams in baseball have less going for them than the Royals in 2005.
AL West
California Angels of Arizona
Oakland
Seattle
Texas
I've previewed this division previously. I flipped around Seattle and Texas though because I think Seattle's pitching will rebound and Texas will be hurt by a large regression in their bullpen and the total lack of pitching all around. They will be pretty close, but I think Seattle has the edge.
NL East
Atlanta-You just can't pick against this team. Hudson will contend for Cy Young this year. I'm a little unsure about Smoltz, but that has more to do with my not having seen much of him this spring and monitoring his progress. The corner outfielders will be shameful, but improvements from Chipper, Andruw, Giles and Furcal will partially offset that. This is a team that won by 10 games last year, so it might be closer, but they'll find a way, as they always do.
New York-I like their rotation as one of the better ones in the National League. It's pretty solid from top to bottom. Beltran and Pedro will propel them to second place, with a chance of winning the division. Pedro is my NL Cy Young pick this year and the lack of Bonds for a long time might help Beltran finish among the leaders in the NL MVP race. Kaz Matsui will improve and a full year of David Wright will be very helpful to the Mets.
Florida-Yes they got Delgado and I also like the pickup of Al Leiter, but the lack of a decent bullpen outside of Mota is going to ground their chances of winning the NL East unless the rotation can stay healthy for the whole year, some that has yet to be seen. Don't get me wrong, they're pretty close to the Mets in my view, but I just like the Mets a little better.
Philadelphia-I just cannot get enthused about this Phillies team, even though they have a lot of talent at many positions. It's probably just as likely that they finish fourth as them finishing 2nd, but I just can't pick the Phillies over the Marlins or Mets. Something always seems to go wrong with them. If nothing goes wrong for the Phillies, they could win the division. They are definitely the most likely team to win their division of all of the teams that I'm picking to finish this low--the NL East is just that close--, but for predictions sake, something inside tells me something is going to wrong with them.
Washington DC-This is something that we can all agree on. They have some nice talent, like Livan, Nick Johnson, Vidro and Jose Guillen, but they dont compare to the other four teams in the division. Guzman and Castilla wont prove to be very helpful additions and will prove to be money thrown down the drain. The Expos will struggle even more to score runs in the Shea-like RFK stadium.
NL Central
St. Louis-Sure they lost Renteria, Woody Williams and Mike Matheny, but they werent all that valuable anyways. Their losses in the bullpen, however, will prove to be problematic to a certain degree. They're probably still a 93-95 win team and the class of this division, but they could encounter problems if they have serious rotation injury problems or if Larry Walker cant stay healthy for most of the year.
Chicago-They have a lineup that's on the fringes of the upper-tier and they have arguably the best front three in baseball after the breakout of the Big 3, but that still wont lead them to a division title. Prior is going to struggle more than many think as he continues to have lingering injury problems and only puts together 2 dominant months. Maddux will continue to give up the longball a ton and will decline some more. The fifth spot in the rotation will become a bigger problem than many anticipate when Rusch fails to meet expectations. The bullpen will be bad to mediocre. If Hawkins is given the closer's job, it will be the latter, if not, the former. Despite my tone, I still think they're an 87-89 win team and will be in Wild Card Contention again in 2005.
Cincinatti-Pitching additions will be more helpful than many realize. Kearns will stay healthy and they'll have a great outfield of Kearns, Dunn (who will lead baseball in Homers with 55 or so) and Pena. They'll score runs and give up a lot, resulting in a record near .500, but I think they can get over the .500 hump this year.
Houston-The loss of Wade Miller, Carlos Beltran and Jeff Kent are going to be a bitter pill for this team to swallow, combined with the decline of Bagwell and Biggio. They were a fun team to watch last year, but without a bullpen, with a good, not great rotation and with a lot of question marks, they will fall from where they were last year by a significant margin.
Milwaukee-They had a fair amount of things going right for them last year and they still won only 67 games. I'm not so sure how they're going to be a whole lot better, though they should be better than Pittsburgh. Capellan is a big wild card. If he can step into the rotation and pitch well, this team could turn out better than expected, but that's less likely than it sounds. Lee will help this team score more runs.
Pittsburgh-Didn't improve a lot or lose a lot. They'll be fighting with Milwaukee to keep from being the only 6th place team in baseball, but it's a race they'll probably lose.
NL West
San Francisco-I think Bonds will be back by mid-June to Early July and that he'll be back to his old ways at that time and that sums up most of what you need to know about why I'm picking the Giants. The other things include a full year from Noah Lowry, an improvement from Jerome Williams, the excellent addition of Armando Benitez and the addition of Alou. Alou wont come close to matching his home run total, but he'll still be pretty good considering he'll be playing half his games at SBC Park
Los Angeles-They're not that much worse than San Francisco and this should be a major battle again, but the bullpen that they've prided themselves on for a few years now just isnt that great. Brazoban and Gagne will be lights out, but getting there will be a problem. The rotation will be solid, but not incredible considering Dodger Stadium. Hee Sop Choi will have a breakout year and Drew was a great addition, but Beltre powered them past San Francisco last year. If Drew gets hurt, then their chances of winning the division are severely diminished.
San Diego-I remain unconvinced that this team has what it takes to win the division. The pitching should be decent, but sometimes even the best pitching staff can't overcome a terrible hitting team (see 2003 LA Dodgers). They really didnt add any offense and I dont see it improving much, given their ballpark. Woody Williams wont be as good as David Wells was last year. They'll finish 3rd again, but it will be a close third.
Arizona-They spent a lot of money and finally look like a major league team, but they wont be contending in 2005. I like Javy and Webb, but Ortiz got waaaaaaay too much money. The loss of RJ will hurt them more than many are talking about. Shawn Green will help their offense though. Luis Gonzalez is a big wild card in terms of health and performance. He could improve or he might even need to contemplate retirement. This team will be watchable in 2005, but it wont be a good team.
Colorado-This team will hit. This team will not pitch. You could say that about every single Colorado Rockies team ever for the most part, but it still holds true with this team. They're a worse team than Arizona because Arizona looks like a medicore to bad major league team while Colorado only looks like half a major league team (and you can guess which half).
Playoffs and Awards:
AL Wild Card-Oakland
NL Wild Card-New York Mets
AL Playoffs
New York vs Oakland: New York in 3
Minnesota vs Anaheim: Minnesota in 5
New York vs Minnesota: New York in 7
NL Playoffs
Braves vs Giants: Braves in 4
Mets vs Cardinals: Cardinals in 5
Braves vs Cardinals: Braves in 6
World Series: New York over Atlanta in 5
AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero
NL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL Cy Young: Randy Johnson
NL Cy Young: Pedro Martinez
AL Rookie of the Year: Brandon McCarthy
NL Rookie of the Year: Jeff Francis
So there ya go, a few surprises in the Wild Cards, but otherwise not a ton of surprises with the Yankees returning to World Series victory. Note that these predictions arent to be taken extremely seriously as there's a ton of luck involved in baseball as well as unforeseen factors, trades, etc.
Sunday, March 13, 2005
Seismic shifts in the Baseball Blogging world
There have been a lot of changes in the past few days (and weeks) in the baseball blogging world:
The first thing to happen was the exodus of Rich's Baseball Beat and Wait 'Till Next Year from All Baseball to a new site that the two created called Baseball Analysts. The new site is of the highest quality and is probably one of the best blogs out there right now. I urge everyone to check it out.
The next major shift to occur was the consolidation of many blogs into the SportsBlogs network. This network doesnt really have a homepage, but it is headed by Blez from Athletics Nation and includes many team blogs and John Sickel's Minor League Ball. I really like how these blogs employ the diary feature, so that others can contribute in a way that doesnt require them to start a new blog.
Another huge shift was the consolidation of many blogs from All Baseball and other sources to Baseball Toaster, including Will Carroll, Mike's Baseball Rants, Bronx Banter and Dodger Thoughts. This new site instantly becomes one of the centers of the baseball blogging universe.
Now that All Baseball was essentially raided of the majority of its highest quality blogs, they merged with the Most Valuable Network. The details of their merge haven't really been worked out yet, but the first thing that happened was Exile in Wrigleyville moving over to All Baseball, which I like a lot. I wasn't a big fan of the old interface of Vince Galloro's site while it was on the Most Valuable Network, but I like the All Baseball interface. I'm also happy that Vince is on a baseball website, not just a generic sports website. He's the White Sox' lone representative of the bigger name bloggers.
The interesting part is that this all took place in the midst of Spring Training. I don't really know why all of this happen, but it's really important to note all of this. It seems as if there is a general consolidation of blogs, which is probably a good thing. I dont think it will compromise the blogs to be affiliated with one another. On the contrary, it might raise the visibility of all of them for them to all be located on one site or in one network.
The first thing to happen was the exodus of Rich's Baseball Beat and Wait 'Till Next Year from All Baseball to a new site that the two created called Baseball Analysts. The new site is of the highest quality and is probably one of the best blogs out there right now. I urge everyone to check it out.
The next major shift to occur was the consolidation of many blogs into the SportsBlogs network. This network doesnt really have a homepage, but it is headed by Blez from Athletics Nation and includes many team blogs and John Sickel's Minor League Ball. I really like how these blogs employ the diary feature, so that others can contribute in a way that doesnt require them to start a new blog.
Another huge shift was the consolidation of many blogs from All Baseball and other sources to Baseball Toaster, including Will Carroll, Mike's Baseball Rants, Bronx Banter and Dodger Thoughts. This new site instantly becomes one of the centers of the baseball blogging universe.
Now that All Baseball was essentially raided of the majority of its highest quality blogs, they merged with the Most Valuable Network. The details of their merge haven't really been worked out yet, but the first thing that happened was Exile in Wrigleyville moving over to All Baseball, which I like a lot. I wasn't a big fan of the old interface of Vince Galloro's site while it was on the Most Valuable Network, but I like the All Baseball interface. I'm also happy that Vince is on a baseball website, not just a generic sports website. He's the White Sox' lone representative of the bigger name bloggers.
The interesting part is that this all took place in the midst of Spring Training. I don't really know why all of this happen, but it's really important to note all of this. It seems as if there is a general consolidation of blogs, which is probably a good thing. I dont think it will compromise the blogs to be affiliated with one another. On the contrary, it might raise the visibility of all of them for them to all be located on one site or in one network.
Friday, March 11, 2005
All hail Brandon McCarthy
It seems as if McCarthy is finally getting his due praise from the national media.
His decent start (statistically it was awesome, but it wasn't the best he's done, which is really saying something) at one point was the first slide on the slideshow on MLB.com yesterday.
John Sickels (whose Minor League Ball blog is excellent if you have not been there already) rated McCarthy the top White Sox prospect with an excellent (by Sickels standards) A- grade.
Dayn Perry, rated him the 14th best prospect in all of baseball (which is the highest I have seen him ranked), saying:
But we all know that scouts weren't exactly impressed with Buehrle at first, but look how he turned out. McCarthy is not in the same mold as Buehrle, however, in that he is probably going to rack up more K's than Buehrle. I've heard the comment that he's like a tall Zach Greinke, which sounds pretty fair to me in that he gets a lot of K's, pitches smart and has great control.
Hopefully we'll get to see him one more time this spring on television, but I have a feeling that we'll be seeing him a few more times before the season is over.
His being at a very good level puts the White Sox in a good position, in that if Garland isn't adequate, Hernandez isn't healthy or Contreras proves he isn't good enough to start, McCarthy is there and will be a more than reliable replacement. By sheer ability, he'll probably find his way into the rotation before the year's end.
His decent start (statistically it was awesome, but it wasn't the best he's done, which is really saying something) at one point was the first slide on the slideshow on MLB.com yesterday.
John Sickels (whose Minor League Ball blog is excellent if you have not been there already) rated McCarthy the top White Sox prospect with an excellent (by Sickels standards) A- grade.
Dayn Perry, rated him the 14th best prospect in all of baseball (which is the highest I have seen him ranked), saying:
McCarthy led the minors with 202 strikeouts in 2004, and he also posted a sparkling 6.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio across three levels. Not bad for a 17th-rounder. He shows exceptional command of a two-seamer, four-seamer and excellent curve. McCarthy's changeup needs refinement, but he still made good progress with it last season. His mechanics are polished and efficient, and his height (6'7") gives him a good downward angle at hitters. Some scouts aren't wowed by his stuff, but the numbers thus far are tremendously impressive.
But we all know that scouts weren't exactly impressed with Buehrle at first, but look how he turned out. McCarthy is not in the same mold as Buehrle, however, in that he is probably going to rack up more K's than Buehrle. I've heard the comment that he's like a tall Zach Greinke, which sounds pretty fair to me in that he gets a lot of K's, pitches smart and has great control.
Hopefully we'll get to see him one more time this spring on television, but I have a feeling that we'll be seeing him a few more times before the season is over.
His being at a very good level puts the White Sox in a good position, in that if Garland isn't adequate, Hernandez isn't healthy or Contreras proves he isn't good enough to start, McCarthy is there and will be a more than reliable replacement. By sheer ability, he'll probably find his way into the rotation before the year's end.
