Nineteen Seventeen

I probably wont be able to blog much (if at all) over the next two weeks as I'm going on vacation pretty soon, so if you dont hear from me for a long while, that's where I am. On about January 10th, I should be getting back to blogging

George Offman for once is actually right! El Duque is the answer to the fifth starter question that hasnt been answered since Kip Wells and Jon Garland shared the spot in 2000. Whether or not it was the best answer to the question is certainly up for debate, but at least we have an answer. I would have much preferred Odalis Perez or possibly even Wade Miller, but this will do if it was the only realistic pitcher we could sign within our means. I think 8 million guarenteed is also on the high side, but that's what the market dictated this year. I have heard a report that it's only worth 4 million, but I'm willing to bet that was a mistake, though it would be nice if it weren't.

Concerns about El Duque that I have:

-.79 career groundball to flyball ratio

-He's 35 years old. Or is he 39?

-He'd done worse of the road in his career (3.77 at home (always has been Yankee Stadium) career and 4.12 on the road)

-He hasn't pitched 190 innings since 2000 and he's done it only twice (1999 as well)

I think these are some important concerns and Ozzie is going to have to be really careful with him. I would expect about a 4.30-4.60 ERA with about 150-175 innings pitched next year, which would be great compared to what we've had recently. Who knows? Maybe he'll carry over his sucess from last year, US Cellular Field wont affect him much and he'll stay healthy? It's not entirely unrealistic.

His home/road splits are weird (2.61 ERA at home, 4.21 ERA on the road) because it seems they had more to do with his varying K/BB ratios than anything else (54/15 at home and 30/21 on the road). I dont know how to explain that, but I know one thing's for sure, I'd be happy as hell with a 4.21 ERA out of Hernandez. Overall it's a decent signing by the Sox and it gives them the best rotation in the division

George Offman of the Score 670 is reporting that the Sox will sign El Duque tomorrow at 2 years 8, with up to 4 million in incentives. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher, but hell anything is better than what we've had to deal with the past 2 years in the fifth starter spot. To have five major league starters on this team is a huge upgrade. The upgrade is worth 4-5 wins at least over the terribleness that would have otherwise ensued had the 5th starter carousel started going again. This also helps us in that we wont have to promote prospects too early (ie Brandon McCarthy). Decent signing relative to the market, but excellent signing if there's truth to this report, and it does seem to have a lot of truth to it.

Continuing on what I had started yesterday I will discuss the bullpen candidates who are not currently assured spots. This list might grow, but I dont anticpate by a lot. A reminder of the candidates I had mentioned before:

Neal Cotts (L)

Jon Adkins (R)

Arnie Munoz (L)

Kevin Walker (L)

Felix Diaz (R)

I'll throw in Jeff Bajenaru (R) because with a good spring he has as good a chance as the others to make the bullpen. I would expect one righty and one lefty of this group to make the bullpen. Let's look at them one by one now:

Neal Cotts (L) 5.29 ERA as reliever 4 holds 2 blown saves
He didnt have a great year last year in the bullpen. His problems involved giving up far too many home runs (11 in 63 innings) and walking a few too many (29 in that same amount of innings). His K/9 of 8.14 was pretty good and his BAA of .237 wasnt all that bad either. If he could give up a few less homers (interestingly enough 7 of the 11 came on the road) and walk a few less he'd be a solid reliever. I'm just not so sure he can do that. I would not recommend that he be in the 2005 pen unless he shows signs of better control at AAA next year. I know Ozzie likes this guy so I fear he will make the pen over some more deserving guys.

Jon Adkins (R) 4.65 ERA 5 holds
I would have to say that the ERA is a lot lower than it could be. His WHIP was 1.52, which is terrible. His BAA was .305, also awful. His K/9 of 6.39 wasnt so stellar either. At least he didnt walk a terribly high amount of batters. He gave up 13 homers in 62 innings as well. I dont see much of anything good in this guy and his 4.65 ERA can only be explained by luck and the fact that he was rarely put in situations of importance and with good reason. I would also not recommend him, but again Ozzie had him in his pen last year so that might play a role in the decision-making process.

Arnie Munoz (L) 3.97 ERA as reliever
Unlike the previous two pitchers, Munoz is actually a good pitcher. People will look to his absolutely pathetic start in Montreal and dismiss him outright, but that's the wrong way to evaluate him. He was miscast as a starter in the minor leagues and they tried to bring him up too quickly because we were desperate for a starter. His curve is an excellent pitch, he just needs to learn to be less afraid of the hitters. He did walk 10 batters in 11.1 innings in his short stint as a reliever, but he had 10 K's too. He's young and will learn how to pitch. Adkins is 27, Cotts is 24 (will be 25 by opening day) and Munoz is only 22, so you can cut the guy a little more slack. He was on the verge of making the 2003 roster in Spring Training before an awful spring. He will be good pretty soon and it's worth the risk that he might become a dominant reliever in a short amount of time. I would recommend him for the bullpen.

Kevin Walker (L) 4.26 ERA at AAA Fresno
I dont know why they signed this guy as he doesnt seem to have any upside. His BB/9 was 4.5 at AAA, he gave up his fair share of homers and didnt do anything particularly impressive at AAA. None of his previous AAA numbers are so spectacular either. They must see something in him that isnt evident through the stats, which is very possible, but I'm still skeptical. By now, you'd think he would have posted one good year. I do not recommend him for the bullpen.

Felix Diaz (R) 3.78 ERA as reliever
I think Felix is a good reliever and an awful starter. He gave up three homers in relief last year, but he didnt walk all that many, which is more than all of the other previously mentioned candidates can say (6 in 16.2 innings is fine by me). His 11 K's arent spectacular, but an 11:6 K:bb ratio isnt bad. Anyways we are dealing with a very small sample size so it's hard to read too much into these numbers, except for the fact that they werent too far off from his numbers as a starter. He got killed by the HR as a starter, but I think this will be less of a problem in relief.

Jeff Bajenaru (R) 1.34 ERA at AA Birmingham
I could offer his ML ERA (10.80), but that doesnt tell us much about the pitcher. He had great minor league numbers, but he just couldnt stop giving up hits at the ML Level. I'm thinking he might have a shot with a good spring because he's not that bad of a pitcher (51 K in 33.2 IP at Birmingham), but I dont expect him to make the team. I wont recommend against him if he has a good spring however. He has a higher potential than Diaz, so if he figures things out, I'd recommend him for the bullpen, otherwise he needs to get seasoning at the bandbox in Charlotte.

So I would add Munoz the lefty and Diaz the righty to the back end of the bullpen, both of whom are capable for long relief which makes my recommended bullpen: Takatsu, Marte, Hermanson, Politte, Vizcaino, Diaz and Munoz, with Vizcaino being my least favorite member. Any way you look at it I think we will have a fairly strong bullpen which should challenge the Twins for best in the division and one of the better ones in baseball.

In the first of four analyses of the 2005 Chicago White Sox, I will focus on the only complete part of the team right now: the bullpen. During the offseason, I had advocated that our biggest priority was adding bullpen depth. My wish was granted when we signed Dustin Hermanson, not too long ago. The 2005 White Sox appear to have a pretty good bullpen shaping up, which will help us mightily. Ozzie has shown his willingness to leave starters in a long time, as the White Sox were dead last in bullpen innings pitched despite the 5^th starter problems, so the role of the bullpen might be a reduced one, but it might have also been due to the bullpen he was dealt. The pen this year figures to be very good. As of now, it consists of:

Shingo Takatsu (R)

Damaso Marte (L)

Dustin Hermanson (R)

Luis Vizcaino (R)

Cliff Politte (R)

Depending on whether it’s a 7 man pen or a 6 man pen, there will be an open competition between the following players for the final bullpen spot, but I’m willing to bet that it’s a 7 man bullpen:

Neal Cotts (L)

Jon Adkins (R)

Arnie Munoz (L)

Kevin Walker (L)

Felix Diaz (R)

Bajenaru might be given a chance, but I don’t think he earned a serious look after the way he performed last year.

Let’s look at the pitchers one by one:

Shingo Takatsu 2.31 ERA 19 saves in 20 chances

I really like Shingo’s chances of not dropping off significantly. The clear reason why he was having trouble later in the year was the amount of hitters he was walking. Some people believe it was because hitters weren’t getting fooled by the Frisbee anymore. What I think was really going on was he simply wasn’t hitting the corners with his fastball like he was for almost the entire year up until August. Sure he’ll be 36 next year and his numbers in Japan weren’t nearly this good, but Shingo is just so different than all of the other power pitchers in America, which is why he was so effective. In Japan, the hitters would be more used to a pitcher like Shingo, but here, he’s a total unknown. Pitchers who thrive on location are ageless anyways, just ask Greg Maddux with his 86 MPH fastball. I expect Shingo to maintain a 3.25ish ERA and remain the closer all year. He will be a very important part of the bullpen.

Damaso Marte 3.42 ERA 6 saves 6 blown saves 21 holds

Marte didn’t have a very good year last year…and he still was very good. He was not the 1.58 ERA pitcher of 2003, but he was still important and effective. His problem was that he would get into these fits of wildness which have caused him troubles throughout his career. His strikeout rate was also down some. I hope that his K/9, which has declined three straight years, does not continue to do so because it would probably mean that Marte will cease being an excellent reliever and will become an average reliever. I think his stuff is good enough that it will go back up again, or at least not decline. If Marte can cut down on the walks this year, I think he could post a 2.7 ERA, which is what I’ll predict for him. I’m not sure if he can be the 1.58 ERA pitcher ever again because his BAA’s were just insanely low that year, but I think an ERA between 2.50 and 3.00 is likely next year. Despite not being the closer, he is still the most valuable reliever on the staff and should continue to be so in 2005.

Dustin Hermanson (as reliever) 4.33 ERA 17 saves in 20 chances

I’m pretty optimistic about Hermanson because I don’t think his ERA really reflects what he’s capable of doing in a full season as a reliever. His BAA was only .224. His K/9 was 9.3. His K/BB ratio was a not too bad 2.55. He allowed only 2 homers in those 27 innings. What plagued him was 2 absolutely awful outings towards the end of the year which blew the NL West for the Giants. In those two outings he combined for 1 inning and eight earned runs. Ouch. That means he posted a 72.00 ERA in two of the most important games of the year against LA and Houston. As bad as this is, this really isn’t important to how he’ll perform in a setup role next year. Were he not the closer he would have been pulled sooner and he won’t be the closer next year. His ERA in all other games was 1.73, which is pretty darn good. Up to that point he had been solely a starter, so there’s no real track record for him as a reliever.

I think he will thrive in a relief role next year and he’ll post an ERA in the low 2’s. That might sound wildly optimistic, but I think he’s a really good reliever and when you take mediocre starters, they can turn out to be great relievers some times. Hermanson is one whom I think can do that. If Shingo falters and turns out to be a fluke, Hermanson will close.

Luis Vizcaino 3.75 ERA 1 Save 4 blown saves 21 holds

As much as I’d like Vizcaino’s chances of being a pretty good reliever in another ballpark, I really don’t like his chances all that much in 2005. I think he’s not a bad talent, just that his being a flyball pitcher will absolutely doom his 2005 season. His career K/9 of 8.32, which he has rarely deviated from, is a very good one. His career K/BB ratio of 2.42, which he also doesn’t deviate very much from, isn’t that bad either. What does bother me is 1.88 HR/9, where 1 HR/9 isnt so great. His career G/F ratio of 0.77 likely will not change either unless Cooper works with him to fix it. His ERA next year might be in the upper fours or the low 5’s. I don’t know if he will even be a usable part of the bullpen towards the end of the year. I liked the concept of bolstering the bullpen in the Lee trade, but I don’t think this was the pitcher to do it with.

Cliff Politte 4.38 ERA 19 holds 0 blown saves

Cliff just gave too many hits last year to be very effective, 52 in 51.1 innings pitched. His K/9 was pretty good at 8.42, his K/BB of 2.18 wasn’t so great, but that was his worst since 2001. He had no problems with US Cellular field, posting a 3.07 ERA at home, but a 6.14 ERA on the road, which is very odd. His BAA at home? .202. On the road? .326. This really makes little sense to me how the disparity could be so large. I really don’t know what to make of Politte’s potential for next year, but I’m willing to bet that it took him a while to get over his arm problems in 2003, which caused his 5.14 and 6.23 April and May ERAs. I think he’ll probably be in the upper 3’s next year. He’ll be a serviceable guy for the 6^th or 7^th inning, but I wouldn’t leave him out there in a high leverage situation if one arose in those innings.

Those are the 5 who are guaranteed spots in the bullpen as of now. I will get to the others who will be competing for the final spots later, when I get a chance…which might be a while from now as I’m really busy.

To be continued later…

I've been meaning to start a White Sox blog for a while. I dont know how committed I can be to it, but I'm gonna try my best because I think I have enough to say about the White Sox to sustain a blog, if only I had the time. I love talking about the White Sox and I appreciate all feedback on my opinions.

I hope the name of the blog isn't a mystery to anyone. A lot of fans of other teams like to complain, but they really have no right to complain. It's been since 1917 when the White Sox last won their World Series. I was on www.dodgerblues.com and it made me sick to think that they were complaining about a World Series victory 16 years ago. Try 87 years and counting with no end in sight. The White Sox have been around 104 years and we've been to the playoffs all of 7 times and most living people can only remember 4 of those times. That's pretty darn sad. I'm here to follow the White Sox hopefully follow in the footsteps of their Red counterparts and win the World Series. Hope you enjoy the blog

Note: The actual wording of the blog is in reference to the Kenny Williams quote about the acquisition of Freddy Garcia