Nineteen Seventeen

We'll start the first in a series of 6 divisional predictions with the AL West.

Notables additions to the division:
Adrian Beltre 3B
Richie Sexson 1B
Steve Finley CF
Richard Hidalgo RF
Orlando Cabrera SS
Jason Kendall C

Notable subtractions:
Mark Mulder SP
Tim Hudson SP
Jermaine Dye RF
Troy Glaus 3B
Jose Guillen OF
Troy Percival RP
Edgar Martinez DH

The AL West is a division that, on the whole, is about as strong as it was last year. The team that has practically defined this division for the past few years, the Oakland A's traded away their two best pitchers in Mulder and Hudson, who also happened to be the two best in the division. However, to make up for that, the Mariners added Beltre and Sexson, which, in terms of divisional strength, counterbalances the departure of those two.

Projected Order of Finish:
Anaheim
Oakland
Texas
Seattle

Anaheim

While Anaheim did lose Troy Percival, their longtime closer, their bullpen is not really all that much weaker because of the loss. Francisco Rodriguez will end up being a better closer than Percival could have been. The bullpen as a whole is still one of the absolute best in baseball. I dont think Finley is that much of a better player than Jose Guillen would have been, but he's not all that far behind. Cabrera is a fair upgrade over the overrated David Eckstein, but Cabrera is overrated as well. They're going to depend a lot on relatively young players in McPherson and Kotchman, though Kendry Morales is waiting if either of them falter. Their rotation isn't all that stellar. As far as the rotation goes, Colon will almost certainly be better and Kelvim Escobar is probably one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball; however, Lackey, Washburn and Byrd really dont strike me as better than average starting pitchers, so on the whole it's what I'd consider an average rotation, but in this divsion, that's not such a bad thing. The Angels should win this one easily by at least 5 games. 94-95 Wins should be their target.

Oakland

Yes I do recognize that they traded away Mulder and Hudson, but their young pitching talent is as good as any in baseball. While the rotation wont be as good as it was in the past, Blanton, Haren and the best of Yabu/Meyer will be pretty darn good by the end of the year considering the low standards set by the AL and this division in particular in terms of starting pitching. Rich Harden is on the verge of a breakout season. The question is if Zito can return to his 2000-2003 form and conventional wisdom says that it will. On the offensive side, Jason Kendall will be a huge help. They still have Chavez, Durazo and Hatteberg, with other players who should be at least decent in 2005 like Kotsay, Byrnes, Swisher and Ellis. This might also be a great year for Nick Swisher, but his better years are more likely to be further down the line. Back to pitching, their bullpen is stellar. Dotel, Cruz, Calero, Bradford, Jaric, Street, Rincon, Duchscherer, etc, are all excellent bullpen candidates and any way they go, they can't go wrong. If they happen to be wrong, they will have plenty of other combos that they could toy with. The bullpen is going to carry this team to second place in the division and I predict 87-89 wins for the Oakland A's.

Texas

Now why did I put them below Oakland? Here's my reason: Their bullpen absolutely carried them to those 89 wins last year and I expect regression in three of the major members: Shouse, Mahay and Almanzar. Cordero, Francisco and Brocail will all probably keep it up, but the first three I don't like because they're all above the age of thirty and had career years last year. That's a warning sign for regression. I don't feel the Rangers would have been as successful if it weren't for their pen. Their rotation flat out sucks. Rogers wasn't great last year, despite his 18 wins, and is 40 years old; Drese's peripherals are unencouraging (4.25 K/9 1.69 K/BB); Chan Ho Park one of the most overpaid (and worst) starters in baseball, Chris Young might be fair, but that's the best I could see him doing and they dont even know of their fifth starter yet. It's a garbage rotation. The infield is the best in baseball (arguably) with Teixeira, Soriano, Young and Blalock, but outside of Hidalgo, an enigma, and Kevin Mench, still a question mark, there are no other reliable big bats. I think it's a pretty good team, but I see this team as more of an 85-87 win team because of their putrid pitching staff, which was not at all improved this offseason.

Seattle

Their lineup is now one of the most underrated and best in baseball with Reed, Ichiro, Winn, Beltre, Boone, Ibanez and Sexson. This is clearly the strength of a team that plays in one of the least offensive-friendly ballparks in the majors, which can be a plus, minus or neutral, depending on how you want to look at it. The problem is that their pitching is not in the best of shape. Moyer finally started showing signs of age, giving up 44 Homers last year. Yikes! Joel Piniero will certainly be better in 2005. Gil Meche is still one of the biggest enigmas in baseball. Franklin might go back to his previous form, but that remains to be seen. This rotation has the potential to be one of the best in the division again, especially if Madritsch keeps it up, but repeats of last year cannot happen for the other 4 starters and it require a lot of things going right for that to occur. Felix Hernandez might be able to bail them out, but even if he can, how quickly can he make an impact? Probably not that quick. The bullpen is not good, and is their weakness. Guardado is an excellent closer, but that's all they've really got in the bullpen. The days of Nelson, Rhodes and Sasaki are long gone. Overall this will probably be a vastly improved team, despite my somewhat negative attitude, winning about 75, possibly even 81 games if their rotation gets it together, but their poor bullpen will hold them back from going too far.

Conclusion

This is the one division where I can say that I would be really surprised if the team I predicted to win ended up losing. The Angels are clearly the class of this division, almost any way you look at it. The rest of the division is pretty good, but I can't see the wild card team coming from this division, simply because the A's are a worse team than last year and the Rangers, at the most, didn't get any better. The only argument I can see with my rankings is the placement of the A's over the Rangers, but I think that the two are pretty darn close and if the Rangers got second place that it would surprise me very little. This division has lost its luster that it once had when Seattle won 93 in 2002 and 2003....and failed to make the playoffs both times, but it's still a very good division.