Saturday, April 16, 2005
Buehrle's amazing game
9 Innings
3 Hits--All to Ichiro
1 BB
1 ER
the kicker:
Career high 12 K's
And it was all over in an Hour 39 minutes.
Mark Buehrle was amazing today. There's nothing else that can be said except maybe that he was outstanding or brilliant.
If the White Sox are going to win this year with pitching, it's all going to start at the top with Buehrle. I think he's on his way to a career year in 2005...if he can keep the ball down. So far only one home run allowed, which is why he's pitched so well so far this year. I like what I've seen so far from him...and the rest of the rotation on that note and it should be exciting to see what this team has in store for us on the pitching end of things for the rest of the year.
On another note, Paul Konerko is now the Major League Home Run leader after belting two out of the yard for a grand total of 6. He has four other non-Home Run hits. I don't think anyone really expects it, but wouldnt it be cool if Konerko actually managed to best his home run total of last year? It's not out of the question, especially if he can hit a few more out on the road, as 27 of his 41 came at home. He has three on the road and three at home so far this year.
Overall, I'm extremely happy that this team is 8-3 right now and tied for the Major League lead in wins with Minnesota at 8. It would be nice if we actually could be ahead of the Twins, but who knows? The wild card actually might come out of the AL Central this year.
If the pitching can keep something resembling this up, then I would probably revise my 85 win prediction to a much higher total as I feared the starting pitching might only be mediocre this year. We shall see, however. Only 11 games have been played so far and many of them have been relatively cold, so I won't put too much stock in 11 games, but I think that it's nice to see what every pitcher can do at their best (or close to their best).
3 Hits--All to Ichiro
1 BB
1 ER
the kicker:
Career high 12 K's
And it was all over in an Hour 39 minutes.
Mark Buehrle was amazing today. There's nothing else that can be said except maybe that he was outstanding or brilliant.
If the White Sox are going to win this year with pitching, it's all going to start at the top with Buehrle. I think he's on his way to a career year in 2005...if he can keep the ball down. So far only one home run allowed, which is why he's pitched so well so far this year. I like what I've seen so far from him...and the rest of the rotation on that note and it should be exciting to see what this team has in store for us on the pitching end of things for the rest of the year.
On another note, Paul Konerko is now the Major League Home Run leader after belting two out of the yard for a grand total of 6. He has four other non-Home Run hits. I don't think anyone really expects it, but wouldnt it be cool if Konerko actually managed to best his home run total of last year? It's not out of the question, especially if he can hit a few more out on the road, as 27 of his 41 came at home. He has three on the road and three at home so far this year.
Overall, I'm extremely happy that this team is 8-3 right now and tied for the Major League lead in wins with Minnesota at 8. It would be nice if we actually could be ahead of the Twins, but who knows? The wild card actually might come out of the AL Central this year.
If the pitching can keep something resembling this up, then I would probably revise my 85 win prediction to a much higher total as I feared the starting pitching might only be mediocre this year. We shall see, however. Only 11 games have been played so far and many of them have been relatively cold, so I won't put too much stock in 11 games, but I think that it's nice to see what every pitcher can do at their best (or close to their best).
# posted by Karno : 6:10 PM
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It's great to see Paulie tearing the cover off the ball. Last year's power surge was *probably* his peak - even the most optimistic of projections, such as his 90th percentile PECOTA forecast from baseballprospectus, have him topping off at about 35 homers this year.
That being said, it looks like the Park Effects of New New Comiskey are going to hold for 2005, so he might be able to capitalize on the home-field advantage to tack on a few more.
And, of course, it is that much easier to get to 45 dongs when you've already tallied 6 in the first two weeks. . . .
That being said, it looks like the Park Effects of New New Comiskey are going to hold for 2005, so he might be able to capitalize on the home-field advantage to tack on a few more.
And, of course, it is that much easier to get to 45 dongs when you've already tallied 6 in the first two weeks. . . .
Baseball prospectus' pecota predictions also take into account the chances that paulie will have another abyssmal season like in 2003. Konerko will hit around 40 jacks next year once again benefiting from the jet stream that makes the Cell such a power friendly ballpark.
# posted by 
: 9:24 PM
: 9:24 PM
Be careful with your interpretation of the PECOTA forecasts. There are two important aspects to the prediction - the mean estimate and the spread.
The mean estimate is the what the average fan will say is the projected 2005 stats. For Konerko, the model predicts 26 HR in 476 AB. (This includes a park factor adjustment, although it is still difficult to tease out how much of the Comiskey Park effect last year was real and how much was noise.)
But to me, the interesting portion of the prediction is the confidence interval. As Stephen Gould says - "variability IS the model." This is the aspect that considers Konerko's probability of 'breakout' and 'decline,' based on his history and the history of players comparable to him in terms of skills, stats, and phenotype.
From PECOTA, we can see the 90th percentile of projections, which Konerko has a 10% probability of exceeding - 35 HR in 557 at-bats.
And we can also try to assess the chance of an 'abyssmal' season, as you suggest. For Paulie, he has a 10% chance of posting the pedestrian numbers of 19 HR in 399 AB.
The 50th percentile - 35 homers - can be considered as a pre-season over/under. There is a 50% chance the Konerko will outdo it, and a 50% chance that he will fall short. So most sabermetricians would argue that your a priori statement that he will "hit 40 jacks" is a bit strong.
And again however, 7 HR in 3 weeks gives him a good head start to hitting the over. . .
The mean estimate is the what the average fan will say is the projected 2005 stats. For Konerko, the model predicts 26 HR in 476 AB. (This includes a park factor adjustment, although it is still difficult to tease out how much of the Comiskey Park effect last year was real and how much was noise.)
But to me, the interesting portion of the prediction is the confidence interval. As Stephen Gould says - "variability IS the model." This is the aspect that considers Konerko's probability of 'breakout' and 'decline,' based on his history and the history of players comparable to him in terms of skills, stats, and phenotype.
From PECOTA, we can see the 90th percentile of projections, which Konerko has a 10% probability of exceeding - 35 HR in 557 at-bats.
And we can also try to assess the chance of an 'abyssmal' season, as you suggest. For Paulie, he has a 10% chance of posting the pedestrian numbers of 19 HR in 399 AB.
The 50th percentile - 35 homers - can be considered as a pre-season over/under. There is a 50% chance the Konerko will outdo it, and a 50% chance that he will fall short. So most sabermetricians would argue that your a priori statement that he will "hit 40 jacks" is a bit strong.
And again however, 7 HR in 3 weeks gives him a good head start to hitting the over. . .
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