Nineteen Seventeen

I dont subscribe to ESPN insider, but my sources at WSI tell me that in Rob Neyer's new article, he proclaims the White Sox to be one of the 10 least improved teams this offseason. I have to say that the White Sox inclusion in the article has to be among one of the most ignorant things that Neyer has written. By projected VORP, the White Sox additions project to be worth 116.9 VORP (I used Placido Polanco's projected VORP for Iguchi because based on all reasonable projections of Iguchi that I've seen, they are comparable players), while the players that we are losing project to a 86.5 VORP, a net increase of 30.5, which is a sizable increase. He sites the Lee for Podsednik and Vizcaino deal as the one that forces him to place the Sox on the list, but Podsednik's (17.7) and Vizcaino's (10.0) combined projected VORP (27.7) is actually higher than Carlos Lee's projected VORP Of 25.7. Rob's inclusion of the White Sox on this list greatly brings into question, from my point of view, Neyer's objectivity towards the White Sox as it's pretty clear the White Sox are a better team this offseason, despite the losses of Lee, Ordonez and Valentin. Kenny Williams has worked tirelessly to assemble a team which has no gaping holes in it, even if it meant having to trade and get rid of fan favorites and really good players and he has succeeded for the most part. This team has the potential to be like the 2000 team with less offense and more starting pitching if a few things fall our way. Having one of the best training staffs in the majors is an important step to acheiving those ends.

Win shares comparison 2004:
Ordonez, Lee, Valentin, Schoenweis, the brothers alomar, Mike Jackson: 54
Pierzynski, Hernandez, Dye, Hermanson, Podsednik, Vizcaino, Iguchi (again, we'll use Polanco, just for comparison purposes: 78
Improvement: 24 wins shares=8 wins. The White Sox won 83 in 2004. Add 8 to that and you get 91, only one less to the Twins' 2004 total who did absolutely nothing to improve.

I dont know if I am being unfair in any regards, but this is clearly an improved team. Maybe Henry can shed some light....

The short answer to the title question is yes. The long answer is, not by all that much. Paul Konerko set career highs in the following categories, in this, his sixth season with more than 100 games played (and with the White Sox):
Home Runs: 41
Runs Batted In: 117
Walks: 69
Strikeouts: 107
Slugging %: .535
Stolen Bases (tie, I hope he doesnt try to eclipse this, ever): 1

Those are important categories to have set new career highs in, but are they really a large departure from where he was in 1999-2002? (Let's throw 2003 out for the purpose of this activity because that might be one of the worst slumps in major league history)

Let's look at the rate stats in 1999-2002 and 2004:
1999: .294/.352/.511
2000: .298/.363/.481
2001: .282/.349/.507
2002: .304/.359/.498

2004: .271/.359/.535

Does 2004 really look all that much better in this context? It was actually his lowest batting average of the period, which was made up for by a career high in walks, and the OBP was equalled in 2002 and eclipsed in 2000. The only thing that was so much higher was the slugging percentage. What could account for that? Lets look at Konerko's Doubles/Homers over the period in question:

1999: 31 2B/24 HR Sum=55
2000: 31/21 Sum=52
2001: 35/32 Sum=67
2002: 30/27 Sum=57

2004: 22/41 Sum=63

When you add the two together, the numbers fluctuate by a relatively small degree, not much more than could be adequately expected from luck. It just appears that in 2004, a lot of what was staying in the park beforehand was going out of the park because of A. Konerko's age being one where more power develops and B. the increased Home Run factor at US Cellular Field in 2004.

Let's look at Konerko's VORP by year:

1999: 38.1
2000: 29.0
2001: 39.9
2002: 43.3

2004: 48.1

So yes, it was a career year for Konerko, but the fact that he had the career year in his age 28 season indicates that it was just part of his natural development and not a fluke that anyone needs to worry about. If you want to get rid of that dismal 2003 (3.2 VORP), then we see a nice upward trend going that could actually indicate some improvement in 2005. I don't think Sox fans need to worry about Konerko's production declining in 2005, except for maybe the sheer number of Home Runs.

And as far as that extension goes, I think a 9-10 million dollar a year extension of 3-4 years might be in order, but I wouldnt go much above that in years or in dollars. Fortunately, Konerko doesn't seem like he's going to hold out for a lot of money (like Magglio did).

First things first. I apologize for having neglected the blog the past three weeks. I got uber-busy and should have paid more attention to it.

Second, and more importantly is that we have a new poster on the blog. His name is Henry (he'll probably go by NorthSideHenry) and yes he is a Cubs fan, but dont worry, he's probably one of the least anti-Sox Cubs fan that I know and he'll definitely offer more to the blog than I could alone. His entry onto the blog probably means that some of the talk is going to shift a bit more towards general baseball talk and the occasional Cubs talk, but let's be clear, the purpose will still be as a White Sox blog, just with a new poster with a different viewpoint. Welcome to Nineteen Seventeen Henry!

One of the most obvious things about the White Sox this offseason is the fact that so many players are gone and there are many new ones here. Lee, Valentin and Ordonez, mainstays of the lineup since the 2000 AL Central Division championship campaign are all gone, replaced by Scott Podsednik, Juan Uribe and Jermaine Dye respectively. A fifth major league calibur starting pitcher was actually added to the staff. The bullpen was bolstered. A former hated rival in AJ Pierzynski is now the starting catcher on the South Side. Let's see how the 2005 projected starters (and bullpen) differs from the players who played the most at their respective positions in 2004 (Baseball Reference's "starters" will be the basis for this excercize, though I tweaked it a bit):

2004:

C Ben Davis/Jamie Burke/Miguel Olivo/Sandy Alomar
1B Paul Konerko
2B Willie Harris
3B Joe Crede
SS Jose Valentin (Uribe got his 502 at bats at 2b, SS and 3B)
LF Carlos Lee
RF Joe Borchard/Magglio Ordonez
CF Aaron Rowand
DH Frank Thomas

Starter 1 Mark Buehrle
Starter 2 Esteban Loaiza/Freddy Garcia
Starter 2 Scott Schoenweis/Jose Contreras
Starter 4 Jon Garland
Starter 5 Dont ask

Closer Shingo Taktasu
Reliever 2 Damaso Marte
Reliever 3 Neal Cotts
Reliever 4 Cliff Politte
Reliever 5 Jon Adkins

There were a ton of inseason changes so it's really hard to pin down who was considered in what role.

And now your 2005 Chicago White Sox:
C AJ Pierzynski
1B Paul Konerko
2B Willie Harris
3B Joe Crede
SS Juan Uribe
LF Scott Podsednik
RF Jermaine Dye
CF Aaron Rowand
DH Frank Thomas

Starter 1 Mark Buerhle
Starter 2 Freddy Garcia
Starter 3 Jose Contreras
Starter 4 Jon Garland
Starter 5 Orlando Hernandez

Closer Shingo Takatsu
Reliever 2 Damaso Marte
Reliever 3 Dustin Hermanson
Reliever 4 Luis Vizcaino
Reliever 5 Cliff Politte

I think a lot of this change will be for the better and that will be discussed later. It's interesting to note what players have the most years of service with the club including 2005 in their current tenures:

Frank Thomas 16 years
Paul Konerko 7 years
Jon Garland 6 years
Mark Buehrle 6 years
Joe Crede 6 years (he didnt get extended time till 2002 however)
Aaron Rowand 5 years
Willie Harris 4 years
Damaso Marte 4 years
Neal Cotts 3 years
Jon Adkins 3 years
Ben Davis 2 years
Freddy Garcia 2 years
Carl Everett 2 years
Jose Contreras 2 year
Juan Uribe 2 years
Cliff Politte 2 years
Shingo Takatsu 2 years
Jermaine Dye 1 year
AJ Pierzynski 1 year
Luiz Vizcaino 1 year
Dustin Hermanson 1 year
Scott Podsednik 1 year
Orlando Hernandez 1 year

Of the 23 players listed, 13 of them are new from 2004 or later. That is a very large number of players, considering that it's not a group of minor leaguers or anything of the like. Joe Crede is tied for third as the most tenured player along with Jon Garland? How ridiculous is that?

High turnover is generally a good thing when you dont get results, so you have to give Kenny credit on that front. For instance, the AJ Pierzynski signing was a good move by Kenny Williams (take that Scott Long). So was the Jermaine Dye signing.

Sorry about the long absence so early in the life of the blog but I got it started at a time when I probably should have waited a bit. I will try to post as often as I can now.