Nineteen Seventeen

We'll start the first in a series of 6 divisional predictions with the AL West.

Notables additions to the division:
Adrian Beltre 3B
Richie Sexson 1B
Steve Finley CF
Richard Hidalgo RF
Orlando Cabrera SS
Jason Kendall C

Notable subtractions:
Mark Mulder SP
Tim Hudson SP
Jermaine Dye RF
Troy Glaus 3B
Jose Guillen OF
Troy Percival RP
Edgar Martinez DH

The AL West is a division that, on the whole, is about as strong as it was last year. The team that has practically defined this division for the past few years, the Oakland A's traded away their two best pitchers in Mulder and Hudson, who also happened to be the two best in the division. However, to make up for that, the Mariners added Beltre and Sexson, which, in terms of divisional strength, counterbalances the departure of those two.

Projected Order of Finish:
Anaheim
Oakland
Texas
Seattle

Anaheim

While Anaheim did lose Troy Percival, their longtime closer, their bullpen is not really all that much weaker because of the loss. Francisco Rodriguez will end up being a better closer than Percival could have been. The bullpen as a whole is still one of the absolute best in baseball. I dont think Finley is that much of a better player than Jose Guillen would have been, but he's not all that far behind. Cabrera is a fair upgrade over the overrated David Eckstein, but Cabrera is overrated as well. They're going to depend a lot on relatively young players in McPherson and Kotchman, though Kendry Morales is waiting if either of them falter. Their rotation isn't all that stellar. As far as the rotation goes, Colon will almost certainly be better and Kelvim Escobar is probably one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball; however, Lackey, Washburn and Byrd really dont strike me as better than average starting pitchers, so on the whole it's what I'd consider an average rotation, but in this divsion, that's not such a bad thing. The Angels should win this one easily by at least 5 games. 94-95 Wins should be their target.

Oakland

Yes I do recognize that they traded away Mulder and Hudson, but their young pitching talent is as good as any in baseball. While the rotation wont be as good as it was in the past, Blanton, Haren and the best of Yabu/Meyer will be pretty darn good by the end of the year considering the low standards set by the AL and this division in particular in terms of starting pitching. Rich Harden is on the verge of a breakout season. The question is if Zito can return to his 2000-2003 form and conventional wisdom says that it will. On the offensive side, Jason Kendall will be a huge help. They still have Chavez, Durazo and Hatteberg, with other players who should be at least decent in 2005 like Kotsay, Byrnes, Swisher and Ellis. This might also be a great year for Nick Swisher, but his better years are more likely to be further down the line. Back to pitching, their bullpen is stellar. Dotel, Cruz, Calero, Bradford, Jaric, Street, Rincon, Duchscherer, etc, are all excellent bullpen candidates and any way they go, they can't go wrong. If they happen to be wrong, they will have plenty of other combos that they could toy with. The bullpen is going to carry this team to second place in the division and I predict 87-89 wins for the Oakland A's.

Texas

Now why did I put them below Oakland? Here's my reason: Their bullpen absolutely carried them to those 89 wins last year and I expect regression in three of the major members: Shouse, Mahay and Almanzar. Cordero, Francisco and Brocail will all probably keep it up, but the first three I don't like because they're all above the age of thirty and had career years last year. That's a warning sign for regression. I don't feel the Rangers would have been as successful if it weren't for their pen. Their rotation flat out sucks. Rogers wasn't great last year, despite his 18 wins, and is 40 years old; Drese's peripherals are unencouraging (4.25 K/9 1.69 K/BB); Chan Ho Park one of the most overpaid (and worst) starters in baseball, Chris Young might be fair, but that's the best I could see him doing and they dont even know of their fifth starter yet. It's a garbage rotation. The infield is the best in baseball (arguably) with Teixeira, Soriano, Young and Blalock, but outside of Hidalgo, an enigma, and Kevin Mench, still a question mark, there are no other reliable big bats. I think it's a pretty good team, but I see this team as more of an 85-87 win team because of their putrid pitching staff, which was not at all improved this offseason.

Seattle

Their lineup is now one of the most underrated and best in baseball with Reed, Ichiro, Winn, Beltre, Boone, Ibanez and Sexson. This is clearly the strength of a team that plays in one of the least offensive-friendly ballparks in the majors, which can be a plus, minus or neutral, depending on how you want to look at it. The problem is that their pitching is not in the best of shape. Moyer finally started showing signs of age, giving up 44 Homers last year. Yikes! Joel Piniero will certainly be better in 2005. Gil Meche is still one of the biggest enigmas in baseball. Franklin might go back to his previous form, but that remains to be seen. This rotation has the potential to be one of the best in the division again, especially if Madritsch keeps it up, but repeats of last year cannot happen for the other 4 starters and it require a lot of things going right for that to occur. Felix Hernandez might be able to bail them out, but even if he can, how quickly can he make an impact? Probably not that quick. The bullpen is not good, and is their weakness. Guardado is an excellent closer, but that's all they've really got in the bullpen. The days of Nelson, Rhodes and Sasaki are long gone. Overall this will probably be a vastly improved team, despite my somewhat negative attitude, winning about 75, possibly even 81 games if their rotation gets it together, but their poor bullpen will hold them back from going too far.

Conclusion

This is the one division where I can say that I would be really surprised if the team I predicted to win ended up losing. The Angels are clearly the class of this division, almost any way you look at it. The rest of the division is pretty good, but I can't see the wild card team coming from this division, simply because the A's are a worse team than last year and the Rangers, at the most, didn't get any better. The only argument I can see with my rankings is the placement of the A's over the Rangers, but I think that the two are pretty darn close and if the Rangers got second place that it would surprise me very little. This division has lost its luster that it once had when Seattle won 93 in 2002 and 2003....and failed to make the playoffs both times, but it's still a very good division.

I'm a Barry Bonds fan and nothing he said yesterday changed that. I don't see how what he said yesterday was a big departure from what he has said in the past. Apparently, Joe Sheehan doesn't either:

The fact is, Bonds was correct in much of what he said yesterday. The media does keep running back to the same stories over and over. There are larger problems in our society than athletes using performance-enhancing drugs. Whether steroids are cheating isn't the black-and-white question it's been presented as, not in a game that turns a blind eye to the kind of amphetamine use baseball has seen. His blanket accusation that everyone in the room had lied at one time or another was unfortunate, almost certainly erroneous, and provided an easy way to paint Bonds as a bad guy.

I wrote this in December, but it's worth mentioning again: Bonds is facing these questions in part because he was betrayed by the system. His grand-jury testimony, and that of others, was leaked to the media. That is the biggest crime in this situation to date, and almost no one has addressed it with the same gusto as they have the connections between Bonds and his personal trainer. Where are the investigation and the indictments for that crime?

As far as that testimony is concerned, I don't think you can have it both ways. I don't think it's fair to treat it as Grand Jury Testimony where the stories are good, but then decide that where the story isn't as good, the person is lying. That's what Bonds is facing here: not only was his testimony leaked, but people have effectively been accusing him of perjury for two months since then. His explanations for his use of the clear and the cream have been dismissed, his performance record seen as tainted.

I agree wholeheartedly. There is definitely a double-standard when it comes to Bonds and it has a lot to do with the media's hatred of him. There is no shred of objectivity left from the media's perspective, which makes it seem like people like me, who aren't positive that Bonds did the 'roids or that they helped him even if he did take them, are in a very small minority.

It seems as though one cannot suggest anymore that Bonds just might be telling the truth or say that you are on Bonds' side without being attacked for that position immensely and that is entirely unfair.

The media hates Bonds. The media has made you connect Bonds with the steroid issues based on their reporting. The media wants to to be on their side of the Bonds issue. I know most White Sox fans should know that the media does not always reflect the truth.

I have a lot respect for Bonds, taking a stand against the media who keeps rehashing the same friggin' story over and over and over a billion times because it's a lot easier to discuss than what acutally might happen on the field. Why is it that the media sinks so much time into this steroid issue, when a lot of the team previews aren't even researched thoroughly?

The whole proportion of the steroid issue and the question of asterisks is a media invention. Are steroids a problem? Yes they certainly are, but there is a testing policy that will be given a chance for a year or two before anything is to happen. So why bother harping on this story continually? It's because the media is lazy and they can't write (seemingly) well on any other issue.

Bonds is 100% correct on that part.

I think Bonds overplays the race card sometimes and definitely is not the most diplomatic person in the world, but the content of what he's saying is for the most part accurate. It might not be what the media wants to hear, but that's too bad. Sometimes being candid and pleasing the media don't always match up and Bonds recongizes this.

It's really time for this story to die. The story really isn't going anywhere and all it has done is unnecessarily tarnished the game of baseball in the eyes of the fans. The problem is under control to a large degree and only the most secretive of steroid users will get away with it now.

Let's give Bonds the benefit of the doubt for now, as is the American way; innocent until proven guilty. Let him play and appreciate his records for what they are on the surface: amazing. Enjoy watching him break the records and if irrefutible evidence that they were a creation of steroids comes about, then you can look at the records in the same way as you see the records of pitchers who used spitballs and scuffed balls in the early 20th century, or most recently, Gaylord Perry, who doesnt have an asterisk next to any of his records.

I don't see the Red Sox in the playoffs. I think one of the Twins or Rangers can bump them off. I see the Red Sox as significantly weaker this season than last. The pitching is significantly weaker, and the offense will probably regress. The Staff:

1. Schilling has had mixed reports, with him himself saying in the current Sporting News that his ankle will be fine for opening day, but his arm may not be. Given that he is far and away the best pitcher, they need him badly.
2. My real beef with the Red Sox supposedly being so good is the Matt Clement addition. Matt Clement has regressed for the past three seasons. I watched him pitch a lot last year, and he did not look good. His ERA last season was 3.7, and he placed in at a 36 VORP. Fairly decent, but that's not much compared to Pedro Martinez, who he has to replace. Moving into Fenway, his ERAa might rise half a run. Down the stretch though, he was brutal, and he lost his rotation spot to 1-12 Glendon Rusch. Is this really a number 2 starter on a World Series team?
3. At 41, do you really expect David Wells to stay healthy, or even out of the bar fight? On the statistical side, he moves out of one of the best pitcher's parks in the National League into a hitter's park in the American League. That does not bode well.
4. Wade Miller is coming off Labrum surgery. Tell me if I'm wrong, but Labrum surgery does not have anything like the success rate of TJ surgery. Counting on him to do much would not be wise.
5. Arroyo, I got nothing. He had a 25 VORP in 179 innings, a very good fifth starter.
6. Tim Wakefield had a 4.9 ERA in roughly 190 innings. He's 38, which I guess isn't that old for a knuckleballer. But his numbers just are not that good.

On the offensive side, there will be some regressions. Varitek is 33, when most catchers start to break down. Renteria, the big new shortstop, managed a .297 OBP against right handed pitchers last season. Mark Bellhorn was good last year, but the year before he managed no home runs in 110 at bats with the Rockies, in the best place to hit home runs. Damon is relatively young, but at 30 he might start slowing down, and his OPS jumped 110 points from the year before, something he probably cannot maintain.

I picked the Rangers over the Red Sox, but I probably should have picked the Twins. They've lost some, but Mauer did not play much, and he will add enough to ofset the loss of Koskie. Bottom line: The honeymoon should end soon for the Red Sox.

Say hello to the New Second baseman for the Chicago White Sox (hopefully for the next 3 years).

I'm not going to pretend this is scientific, but I'd like to put this out there. On October 2nd, 2005, I think the standings will be:

AL EAST
Yankees
Red Sox
Devil Rays
Orioles
Blue Jays

AL CENTRAL
White Sox
Twins
Indians
Tigers
Royals

Al WEST
Angels
Rangers (Wild Card)
Athletics
Mariners

NL EAST
Braves
Marlins
Phillies
Mets
Nationals

NL CENTRAL
Cardinals
Cubs (Wild Card)
Reds
Astros
Brewers
Pirates

NL WEST
Giants
Dodgers
Padres
Diamondbacks
Rockies

If you didn't know about Brandon McCarthy before President's Day weekend, you probably knew a lot about him afterwards. The Sun Times, Tribune and WhiteSox.com all had articles about the 21 year old, 6'7" righty.

If you're not familiar with the Brandon McCarthy story, here it is:

Maybe you had known about him from before 2003. His 2003 Rookie league stats hinted at his potential greatness. In 101 innings at Great Falls, McCarthy posted a decent, but not special 3.66 ERA. However if you look inside the numbers you might have been able to foresee what happened in 2004 (which I'll get into later). He struck out 125 over this time period for a K/9 of 11.14 and walked only 15 for a K/BB of 8.33. He didn't give up all that many homers either, 7 is not a terrible number over that time period. An astute watcher of the minor leagues may have noticed this, but probably not too many others as this was not a ton to get excited about. After all, this was Rookie Ball.

In 2004, however, he broke out and proved that those Rookie Ball numbers were not a fluke. He started the season at Low-A Kannapolis where he posted another good, not great ERA of 3.64 in 94 innings, but again some of his rate stats were excellent. His K/9 was excellent once again at 10.82 and his K/BB was also pretty good at 5.38. His record was 8-5 in 15 starts and the organization felt as though a promotion to High-A Winston Salem was due.

So about halfway through the season he arrived at Winston-Salem. What did he do? In his 52 innings, he was absolutely brilliant. He posted a 2.08 ERA, had a K/9 of 10.38 and an astonishing K/BB of 20 even (60 strikeouts and only 3, yes 3 walks). On July 31st, in a game against Myrtle Beach, he struck out 16 batters in 7 innings or 16 out of the 18 outs he recorded, a ridiculously amazing performance that left many turning heads.

Thus he earned a promotion to AA Birmingham after only 8 starts in High-A. Talk about moving quickly through the system. He only got 4 starts at Birmingham as it was near the end of the year. He went 3-1 in 26 innings with a 3.46 ERA. His K/9 again was extremely high at 10.04, but his K/BB decreased to 4.83. This was probably just a function of the little time he had to adjust to the more veteran hitters of the Southern League than any regression. The fact that he could maintain that K/9 of near 10 at every single level through the system demonstrates his excellence.

When it was all said and done on the year, McCarthy led the minors with 202 strikeouts in 176 innings for a K/9 on the year of 10.57. His win total of 17 was good enough for second in the majors. It is pretty clear that he is among the top pitching prospects in baseball.

Over the weekend, it appears that Ozzie finally got his first look at McCarthy. He thought enough of him to compare him to the great "Black" Jack McDowell, stating:

He's not too far away from the big leagues," said Guillen of McCarthy, who will start a couple of Spring Training games. "Mentally, he's ready to pitch. He's focused and knows what he's doing.

"When you see a kid so young moving the catcher over and telling him what he wants to throw, that's pretty impressive," Guillen added.

This is great stuff to be hearing out of someone who actually played with Jack McDowell. Like McDowell, McCarthy might also be ready to pitch on a high level from day one as he's never had problems adjusting between different levels. Obviously the majors is a whole different animal, but he's very close to being ready.

Before McCarthy came on the scene, it was generally thought that Anderson and Sweeney were next in line to impact the White Sox from the farm system, but it's clear that it will probably be McCarthy, now thought of by many as the superior prospect (including yours truly).

If one of our pitchers were to go down in the middle of the season, I wouldn't have too much fear as I have a lot of confidence in Brandon McCarthy. His game seems to be developed way beyond that of a normal 21 year old and might be able to step in and help immediately. Having McCarthy in the system, almost at a point where he'd be able to pitch in the major leagues might come in real handy later in the season.

I told you the last time that it would just be the first of many mentioned of Thomas's 2006 status. Phil Rogers had a piece today about the case for getting rid of Thomas.

This means it's highly likely he'll open the season on the disabled list, a first in his 16-year career. It probably means he will miss all of April and possibly May, as well.

This part's true, though I'm not so sure that the chances of missing May are as likely as Phil Rogers does. He's putting it in this light to further his later point.

But -- and here's the part I hope to be wrong about -- it looks as if 2005 could turn into a painful farewell for one of the best right-handed hitters in baseball history.

And now the anti-White Sox and anti-Frank Thomas stuff starts...

There's little doubt it will be his last year in Chicago, as general manager Ken Williams seems ready to hand him a $3.5 million severance rather than exercise a $10 million option after the season. But it would be nice if he could go out somewhat in style.

There's little doubt? Maybe there's little doubt in the Tribune sports office and the premature celebration has begun, but I think there's a lot of doubt on whether or not he'll be back. I think it entirely depends on how he does this year. If he can come back in early May and produce well the whole year (a likely scenario), I think there's little doubt that he will be back at the 6.5 million that Kenny would have to pay for him (the scenario that the Tribune expects is that Thomas will excercize his 10 million dollar option and the White Sox will pay 3.5 million to buy him out leaving Kenny with an extra 6.5 million). I just dont see how the Tribune can be so sure in that. This is clearly an opinion and not establised fact.

[Going out with style], of course, never happens with the White Sox. It didn't with Carlton Fisk, it didn't with Jack McDowell, it didn't with Robin Ventura or even Guillen. It certainly didn't with Ordonez. Why should Thomas be different?

He should be different because he was with the club a lot longer than most of those players and he was/is better than all of them. It's not fair to compare Thomas with the players on this list, in my opinion. Thomas has been with the team 16 years and is the best hitter in team history.

It's always fun to be right, but sometimes you wish you were wrong. That's the case with my take on how badly an even more one-dimensional Frank Thomas is likely to fit in on the White Sox, who have been renovated around a National League model.

Two reasons why he's already wrong. First is that Thomas, while unable to play defense, is not a one-dimensional player. The absolute biggest thing that hitters are expected to do is.....to hit (obvious). Thomas's hitting ability is one of the best in baseball when he's healthy enough to play and he's not all about the Home Run ball. He also is one of the best players at getting on base in baseball. His average aint terrible either. He's not a speed threat, but I think it's unfair to call him one dimensional as offensively he's not one dimensional. If you want to argue that offense in itself is the one dimension, go ahead, but it won't get you far as it's the most important dimension by a huge margin.

On the Second point, I actually heard Kenny Williams say that while he wants a National League feel to the club on the whole, that he likes having an American-League style middle of the order. Now we all know that these distinctions aren't very good anyways: they're quite vague. Thomas can easily fit in with the concept of an American League middle of the order.

No, the Boston Red Sox couldn't have won without David Ortiz last season, but we'll consider that the exception that proves the rule.

Well if a team wins by being the exception, then maybe what they have going on there is something that other teams should follow, not shun, as far as I'm concerned. Nobody dismissed the 1969 Mets as the exception when they went to a 5-man rotation. Everybody copied it, as Hawk tells us. Maybe the Red Sox are on to something with having a great full time DH.

That combustible clash between Thomas and Guillen, which was incorrectly forecast last spring, might only have been delayed.

This last line of the article is only put in there to stir up trouble. There is no reason why Guillen and Thomas should have reason to clash. They got along fine last year with higher tensions and I'm sure that Ozzie will put Frank in when he's healthy, if that's what Rogers thinks will happen to cause this clash.

In fact this whole article is in there to stir up trouble. There's no reason to worry about Frank's 06 status when we haven't even gotten to playing spring training games in 2005. Let's worry about '06 when '05 ends.

Let's compare the Tribune and Sun-Times way of noting Frank's 06 status in a similar article today:

Sun-Times

Thomas, who will make $8 million this season, has the first opportunity next offseason to exercise his option for $10 million. But unlike the last two years, the Sox can buy out the contract by giving Thomas $3.5 million and making him a free agent.

The unlikely scenario that remains is that Thomas turns down his option, the Sox elect to not buy out the contract and they use their team option of $12 million to keep the franchise leader in home runs and RBI.

That seems pretty fair. I dont think Thomas will be back if he does not want to be back. To say the Sox can buy out his contract at the end of 06 is perfectly acceptable and journalistically responsible. There isn't a whole lot of editorializig in the Sun-Times version of this part of the similar story.

Also notice the title of the article is "Thomas won't report until March," which is the accurate way of stating the news about Thomas.

Now the Tribune

With a player option for $10 million for 2006, it's expected the Sox will exercise their option to buyout Thomas for $3.5 million, possibly bringing a close to a 15-year Sox career.

The title of this one is "Thomas' ankle healing slowly" despite the fact that Thomas has had no setbacks whatsoever and is probably on the same timetable predicted by Kenny earlier on, that he'd be back in May.

Secondly, the editorializing about Thomas's contract in this article which is supposed to be news is evident. I don't know in what circles outside of the Tribune Sports room it's "expected" that Thomas won't be back, but I'd be interested to find out.

The Tribune will pursue their agenda of kicking Frank out of town very hard this year, as evidenced by today's paper. Don't buy into their BS based upon what we know at this point. There's really no way to know if he'll be back next year and it all depends on what he does this year. The attacks on the White Sox organization and Frank Thomas by the Tribune are shameful, but they're not going to stop anytime soon.

Shingo Takatsu, or Mr. Zero as he is called by many, had an outstanding year last year in his "rookie" season for the Chicago White Sox. On June 12th, in a game against the Braves, he earned his first save for the team and promptly took over the closer's role on a full-time basis for the remainder of the year. Some of Takatsu's impressive accomplishments include going 19 for 20 in save opportunities, a scoreless inning streak of about 25 and a streak where he set down 29 batters in a row, a hidden perfect game as he exceeded the requisite 27 batters in a row (Hidden Perfect games just mean that you retire 27 in a row. It's entirely unofficial and does not have to happen in one game). It was quite an impressive rookie season. He has been annointed by Kenny Williams as the closer for 2005, but there seems to be some concern as he tailed off at the end of the year, or did he?

ERAs by Month:
April 3.86 (7 IP)
May 0.00 (11.2 IP)
June 0.77 (11.2 IP)
July 0.96 (9.1 IP)
August 7.36 (11 IP)
September 1.86 (9.2 IP)
October 0.00 (2 IP)

That stretch from May to July was just incredible. 3 straight months under a 1 ERA? That's almost unheard of. In fact, in 2004, Takatsu was the only pitcher in baseball that could lay claim to such a streak. Not Eric Gagne. Not K-Rod, not Otsuka, Benitez, Nathan, Linebrink, Lidge, Rivera, Gordon or Foulke. Only Shingo Takatsu. (The actual ERA for all of those months combined was 0.55). This is truly impressive.

Now you're probably thinking "He's trying to avoid that August ERA!" Well I'm not going to try to poo-poo it. He had a bad month in August. A pretty darned bad one at that which definitely prevented him from an amazing ERA to finish the year with. Some have stated that this was due to hitters figuring out his frisbee and just waiting for the 87 MPH fastball. The problem with this assessment is that his combined September/October ERA was 1.54, not exactly an awful way to close out the year.

Here's my assessment of why Shingo faltered in August. It's not statistical in nature, but more of an observation. When Shingo was having success for most of the year, the key wasn't that he was just fooling everyone with his frisbee, but he had excellent location with the fastball on the outer half of the plate. It broke right over the corner of the plate and he was getting strikes with it. When he was having trouble in August, he wasn't throwing that fastball for strikes early in the count and thus had major trouble working behind in the count. When he got back on track again in September and October, the fastball was getting thrown for strikes again and he had success again.

Shingo was unhappy with the way he was pitching to lefties last year and decided that he needed to develop a new pitch (at least that's what this thread says). Speculation is that it's a cutter as he spent a lot of time with Esteban Loaiza last year and Don Cooper loves the pitch. If Takatsu has developed a cutter, it would greatly improve his pitch selection. He has enough slow pitches with the 75 MPH slider (I guess) and the 60 mph changeup and an 82-84 MPH cutter will be good for changing speeds with the fastball at 87 MPH. It will definitely help him in 2005.

I think he'll do very well again in 2005. Even though hitters might be more ready for him when they face him, he still represents a large departure from the normal MLB pitcher, so a hitter is still probably unaccustomed to him. Besides Jody Gerut with 7 at bats, no one has really had more than 3 or 4 against him anyways. He should do just fine as the full-time closer in 2005. Shingo-time is not going away this year and Shingo, in all likelihood, will not cause us any problems.

Now I'm going to go out on a limb with this piece, but it's something that I firmly believe. The first thing is that I recommend that you watch this video showcasing Iguchi from the Official White Sox site before you read any further. Notice the park with the really high walls. That's Iguchi's home park (if you haven't figured it out already). Here are the park factors for all of the parks in the Japanese league, with the home park of Iguchi in bold (They're from 2000 and 2001, but I don't think they've changed much, at least Iguchi's home park):

Team 2000 PF 2001 PF Comments
Chunichi Dragons 976 888
Hanshin Tigers 959 978 Large dimensions
Hiroshima Toyo Carp 1074 1004
Yakult Swallows 1027 1009 Very small dimensions
Yokohama Bay Stars 1043 1031
Yomiuri (Tokyo) Giants 952 1081
Chiba Lotte Marines 973 1044
Fukuoka Daiei Hawks 971 969
Nippon Ham (Tokyo) Fighters 1034 1107 Shares with Yomiuri
Orix Blue Wave 1009 1036
Osaka Kintetsu Buffaloes 1005 943
Seibu Lions 1003 998

Now what do you notice? Most of the parks are offensive parks, but this is not the case for the home park of the Daiei Hawks. It is among the minority of ballparks which play large in the Japan League. Allow me to remind you that Ichiro played for the Orix Blue Wave, Hideki Matsui for the Yomiuri Giants and Kaz Matsui for the Seibu Lions, all neutral or offensive parks.

Somehow Iguchi has managed to put up lines of .340/.438/.573 and .333/.394/.549 in 2003 and 2004 respectively at this pitchers park with 27 and 24 homers respectively. Fairly impressive stats. Now we can expect a dip from those numbers certainly, but if Iguchi is going from a pitchers' park in the Japan League to one of the best hitters' parks in the Major Leagues, that will soften the drop by a significant degree.

Aaron Gleeman recently did an article on what we can expect from Iguchi in 2005 and he crunched the following stat line:

YEAR AVG OBP SLG IsoP IsoD
Tadahito Iguchi 2005 .300 .345 .425 .125 .045

Now the way he did it was that he used Kaz Matsui, Hideki Matsui, Ichiro Suzuki and Tsuyoshi Shinjo's first year stats and compared them to the stats of their last year in Japan to make a projection. Now I have demonstrated how this methodology has some problems in that it doesn't at all account for the fact that Iguchi was playing in such a pitcher-friendly ballpark, though I think it gets decently close. I would project a slugging percentage a lot closer to .500 than Aaron Gleeman would, though the OBP might not be a whole lot better than that, but we shall see.

I am going to go on record as saying that I believe that Iguchi will hit at least 20 home runs in 2005, assuming health. 17-25 homers is the range of reasonable possibilites that I'd guestimate. I think he's going to be a power/speed threat in the 2 hole of the lineup this year, especially if he ends up hitting in front of Thomas. I think the biggest part of his game that will suffer is the K/BB ratio, but that he'll still find a way to hit out a lot of homers.

I'm pretty optimistic about Iguchi. There's not a ton to base an opinion on because he's not an established MLB player, so wild speculation can run rampant about his abilities, but the truth is that we can't know until the season starts. Spring Training is still too early to make a call on him because of what happened to Shingo with his 6.75 ERA in Spring Training and his 2.31 ERA in the regular season.

Buried in the bottom of the White Sox article in the Tribune today is this bit about about Frank Thomas:

In past springs, any Sox controversy has centered around Frank Thomas. This spring, Williams expects peace, because Thomas' contract is running out and Williams seems determined not to push his DH into action after foot surgery last fall.

"I have not seen him," Williams said. "I'm sure I will on the 21st (when position players report)."

Will Thomas be recovered enough to go through drills next week?

"We won't gauge where he is until he shows up," Williams said. "A lot can happen in two weeks, and it has been two weeks since his last [rehabilitation] report."

That report put Thomas "on schedule for mid-March," Williams said. "During his rehab, he has not pushed himself for spring-training activities. But I think the most important person to listen to [about his health] is Frank."

This is absolutely excellent news. The White Sox' chances of winning the AL Central immediately got a huge boost with this news. Now I don't exactly when this means Frank will be back. Even if it turns out to be by the beginning of May, that's not the end of the world. I'm sure Carl Everett can do a fine job for one month. But this opens the door for Thomas to be in the lineup on Opening Day, a very encouraging development. If Thomas can come back and hit like he did before he went down last year, then the White Sox will be the clear favorites to win the AL Central in the book of any reasonable prognosticator. He was on track to lead the AL in OBP before he went down with the foot problem. His OBP was .434, while the eventualy title-winner's, Melvin Mora, was .419. Thomas was also on pace for about 40 homers once again.

When Ozzie made the remark that he thought Thomas wasn't going to be back until June, he made that remark without any medical information. Now, Kenny Williams has a lot of info about Frank's health status and it's definitely good news.

This brings up a question that I'm glad that we're able to ask: What do you do with the fact that we have 3 players for two positions with Everett, Dye and Podsednik all vying for a corner outfield spot? I think a platoon with Everett and Dye would be extremely sucessful.

Dye's 2004 stats vs Lefties
AB 161
AVG/OBP/SLG .280/.376/.491
HR 8
BB 26
K 28

Everett's 2003 stats (he hardly played last year) vs Righties
AB 388
AVG/OBP/SLG .299/.382/.557
HR 24
BB 44
K 56

That would be one really good platoon. It can only happen if Podsednik plays decently well and everyone stays healthy, but this is clearly the ideal situation here. If we end up being able to do this platoon then we have entirely and effectively replaced Magglio's bat. It would be one expensive platoon at about 8.5 million, but that's a lot less than what Magglio was asking and makes more sense than keeping one on the bench. It also might be the most talented platoon in baseball. I don't know if Ozzie or Kenny are thinking along these lines at all, but I hope the thought has at least entered their mind going into Spring Training

Well it's finally here: The Pitchers and Catchers have reported, and a few others in addition (*cough* Aaron Rowand *cough*). We also have our first quotes of the year (none from Ozzie that I've seen yet).

Aaron Rowand says:

"There is a little more excitement around here...It is a different feeling than having a group of guys on the team that is going in a different direction."

Indeed. With all of those roster changes since the beginning of last year, the sum total of them for the better, the excitement is justifiable and the team is certainly going in a new direction.

Here are the first spring training pictures of the year:




The excitement begins....

A few changes to the site:

1. We now have an official banner. Many thanks go out to WinningUgly! at White Sox Interactive for taking some time out of his busy schedule to create the amazing new banner. He has come through in the past for me as well, creating a Schoe's Foes banner for my sig when I started the WSI Schoe's Foes group at the beginning of last year and a follow up sig banner when I abolished the group after Schoeneweis's great start.

2. The color scheme has been upgraded to reflect the fact that this is a White Sox blog and not a generic, random blog. If there are any suggestions for the color scheme or if anything looks out of whack, feel free to leave a comment or an E-mail. If you're asking why the links in the link section are blue, it is to reflect the fact that the White Sox' colors were not always black and white and if fact were red, white and blue back in 1917 and many other times in White Sox history. You would know this if you have read WSI's amazing White Sox Uniform Guide by George Bova.

I too am one of those that does not have any respect for the Canseco allegations.

Just because someone says something that sounds like it could be true, doesn't make it true. You must bring a claim into question, regardless of how plausible it sounds, if the person make the claim is of a questionable personality. Jose Canseco fits this description. When Kem Caminiti broke the silence on steroids in Major League baseball a few years ago, everyone stopped and listened because everyone at least could trust him as a fairly credible source. A few days later, Jose Canseco made the claim that 85% of baseball players were on steroids, a wholly unbeliebable and implausible claim. No one listened to him because of the evident hyperbole and unreliability of Canseco.

We're not talking about a clean individual either. Jose Canseco freely admits to using steroids and embraces them. In fact, he was placed under house arrest in 2003 for using steroids as it was a violation of his probation. Why was he on probation? Because of the nightclub brawl that him and his brother were involved with. None of these incidents contribute to our ability to take him seriously as a trustworthy and honest individual. Freely admitting to cheating in baseball and trying to cheat the court doesn't help your case.

So why should we believe that he isn't really just trying to cheat the public out of 20 dollars or so to buy a book full of lies? I don't think that we really can. There may be some truthfulness to parts of what he is saying, but I have a feeling that his more outrageous claims were put in the book to sell a lot of copies when all things are considered.

Hawk Harrelson was on ESPN 1000 today and he freely on air called Canseco a "whore." I cannot say that I disagree with him. Canseco is tarnishing the game of baseball with his ludicrous, unsubstantiated and untrustworthy claims about some of the greatest players of our era. To compare this book to Ball Four is totally unfair to Ball Four. I have no plans to buy the book and waste my team reading through page after page of outrageous allegation after outrageous allegation. Canseco has managed one of the better PR jobs of all time for his new book, but that's where the praise ends from my perspective.

What has Jose Canseco done, exactly, to earn himself some semblance of respect? His book is not that much different than Pete Rose's My Prison Without Bars. Rose wrote his book because he wanted to get into the hall of fame, and did some highly publicized TV interviews. Canseco wrote his book, from what I've heard, to take down his bash-brother Big Mac. Mark got the glory of breaking the home run record, Canseco spent his career injured, playing only 150 games in a season once after 1991, as pointed out by Will Carroll.

Canseco is being hailed by some as a shmuck, as EVERYONE said about the way Pete Rose released his book. Others hail him as something of a whistleblower, as Skip Bayless has. My problem with that is, this information was already out there before. I feel that Barry Bonds saying that he took steroids but did not know it was much more damning than the allegations by Canseco.

The book will end up being compared to Ball Four instead of My Prison Without Bars, which to me sounds ridiculous. Does it really sound to you all as if he is trying to clean up the game? Maybe I'm wrong, but the only thing standing between Canseco and comparisons to Rose is, as Bayless succinctly stated, his better sense of timing.

So tomorrow at about 1 PM CST, the Chicago White Sox pitchers and catchers vouluntary report date will be upon us. Exciting as that is, the fact is that the waiting is not over and that this is just the first of three countdowns that us baseball fans must endure. This is definitely the start of the events leading to the baseball season, but we must remember that baseball season is still a good 6 weeks ahead of us.

The second countdown, which commences once Pitchers and Catchers report, the one to the beginning of spring training games will be easier to take. News articles will be coming out of Tuscon and other Major League spring traing sites. We'll have direct quotes daily from Ozzie Guillen, or White Sox players. Those two weeks will fly by and before you know it, on March 2nd, Spring Training games will be upon us. The exciting part about that is that 20 of them will be televised this year because of Comcast Sports Net, so we'll be able to get our Hawk Harrelson fix a little earlier this year. The first televised game is on March 7th against the Rox.

The final countdown, the countdown to opening day will be easy to take, though we will be eagerly awaiting the White Sox' first opener at US Cellular field in 10-12 years or so. It should be very exciting, especially with a pracitcally brand new team from last years' opening day lineup.

But I'm not trying to downplay the significance of tomorrow. It's the official start of the season and I can't wait any longer.

Here are my questions for the 2005 Chicago White Sox heading into spring training (to which Pitchers and Catchers report in a day and a half):

1. How healthy will Jermaine Dye be and if he is healthy, can he put up numbers like his 1999-2001 seasons ever again?

2. When will Frank Thomas be back and will he play closer to his 2000 self or his 2002 self?

3. Is Aaron Rowand going to emerge as the best AL Centerfielder?

4. Is Tadahito Iguchi closer to Adam Kennedy or Jeff Kent?

5. Was Scott Podsednik's 2003 a fluke?

6. Is Jon Garland, at the age of 25, ready to make the leap to the pitcher he can be?

7. Which side of 4.50 will Jose Contreras's ERA be on?

8. Is this the year that Joe Crede finally steps up and his like everyone has been saying he can for how many years now?

9. Is Shingo Takatsu going to continue to have success in the closers' role or was he a one-year wonder because no one could initially pick up his "frisbee?"

10. Were Dustin Hermanson's relief efforts last year (sans the last two games of the year for him, when he was awful) indicative of what he will be able to do over a full season?

11. How is Luis Vizcaino going to deal with the move to US Cellular Field, considering his propensity to give up the long ball en masse?

12. How much did SBC Park supress AJ Pierzynski's offensive abilities last year? Will he approach or succeed his 2003 season?

13. Can an apparently healthy Carl Everett provide us with a year like the half-season he gave us in 2003?

14. If Podsednik, Everett, Thomas, Dye and Rowand are all healthy, who sits?

15. Was the home run-friendly nature of US Cellular Field a one-year wonder or did the wind patterns change for the benefit of Home Runs due to the renovation of the upper deck between the 2003 and 2004 seasons?

16. Can El Duque make more than or less than 25 starts in 2005?

17. Will Juan Uribe build on his 2004 season?

18. What happens if any of the five starters goes down for more than one month?

I'm sure I could think of a few more, but these are probably enough to ponder for now.

Aaron Rowand's season last year was very impressive, by any standards. I think that not only was his year last year underrated in the national media, and even in the Chicago media, but also I think he is underrated by the Chicago White Sox fandom. Quite honestly he put up excellent numbers last year and the only reason they weren't any better was because he only received 487 at bats last year. He did get off to a poor start, but let us evaluate his season as a whole.

His line of .310/.361/.544 was pretty darned good. That slugging in particular was excellent and good enough for 7th in the American League. I seem to recall another White Sox outfielder who wasn't very good before his age 26 season, but broke out in that season: Magglio Ordonez. His line in 2000, his age 26 season was .315/.371/.546, extremely similar to Rowand's. He did hit 32 Homers to Rowands 24 last year, but Rowand had 101 less at bats. Rowand also had 4 more doubles in these 101 less at bats, to account for the similarity in slugging percentages.

The thing that Magglio had that Rowand didn't last year was a solid BB/K ratio. Magglio's was 60/64 in 2000, while Rowand's was a mediocre 30/91. Rowand is still entering his age 27 season, generally considered to be the beginning of the peak years of a players' career. I have a feeling that Rowand will continue to improve, if only by a slight amount, in 2005, especially if the fact that he got better as last year goes on has any significance. While I don't expect it, a decent jump from last year might also be in the realm of possibilities. Either way, he'll probably be fighting with Vernon Wells in 2005 for the top spot among AL Centerfielders.

Dayn Perry, writing for Fox Sports weighs in on the Ordonez deal, taking a stance almost identical to mine:

The upshot is that, in Ordonez's case, there's a substantial amount of statistical inflation going on. In contrast, Comerica, Ordonez's new home park, is one of the tougher parks in the game for right-handed power bats. Accounting for nothing else, his numbers are primed for a nosedive. Of course, we have lots more for which to account.[...]

Ordonez is 31 years of age, which means, if the vesting options for the final two years of his contract kick in, he'll be 38 before his final season in Detroit. It's unwise to give a corner outfielder a seven-year contract at age 31 under any circumstances — let alone one that's going to pay him in excess of $100 million — but it's even less prudent in Ordonez's case.[...]

After he skipped out on a workout-cum-audition — one that would supposedly prove to suitors that his knee was game ready — there was loose talk that he'd wind up signing a one-year deal. Instead, he's signed the second-biggest contract in baseball since A-Rod's market-shattering pact of 2000.[...]

So this contract would be a bad idea for a healthy 31-year-old; lavishing this kind of deal upon a player who's 31 and encumbered by a puzzling and serious knee injury is potentially disastrous. It's especially confounding behavior from an organization that not long ago got Dean Palmer and his onerous contract off the books and is still freighted down by the four-year, $35-million contract given to Bobby Higginson a few years prior. [...]

Also keep in mind that this isn't a franchise awash in revenues. Teams like the Yankees and Red Sox can withstand the occasional bad contract because of their unmatched payroll flexibility. Heck, the Yankees may wind up treating Jason Giambi and his $120-million deal as a sunk cost. The Tigers, however, can't get away with that kind of behavior, at least not with a contract the size of Ordonez's. [...]

This contract, besides failing to come remotely close to providing value on the dollar, is going to hinder the organization's ability to add the parts necessary to contend and retain their talented young players once they hit their high-salary years. [...]

I'd like to say that, for instance, the contract the Dodgers gave to Darren Dreifort a few years ago was worse, but this one's longer, for almost twice as much money and handed out by an organization that doesn't have the ability to absorb it once the deal sours. The question now isn't whether this is the worst free agent contract of the winter; the question is whether this is the worst free-agent contract of all-time.

The idiocy of that contract is impossible to hide. The reason this article mirrors my stance on his contract is that they fairly obvious. This contract is pathetic and unlike A-Rod or Giambi, Magglio has never put up numbers at any point of his career to warrant a salary of that amount.

I'm sure this won't be the first mention of this between now and the end of the year, but the Chicago Tribune and the Chicago Sun Times brought up the topic of Frank possibly leaving after 2005:

[Thomas] needs solid numbers and a playoff run to keep him with his original team, as the Sox can pay him $3.5 million to go away after this season. (Trib)

After this season, the Sox can buy out Thomas' contract for $3.5 million rather than pay him $10 million to $12 million in 2006. (Sun Times)

I don't have a problem with the mention of Frank possibly leaving, though the thought does bother me immensely. What I do have a problem with is how the Tribune characterized Thomas' situation. While I do agree that he needs "solid numbers" to get the option picked up, I definitely don't think he needs to take the White Sox to the playoffs to ensure his coming back, especially if they come stumbling out of the gate before he can even return. In the past, Jerry Reinsdorf, who usually defers to Kenny Williams on personnel moves, has personally dealt with Thomas on contract matters. I don't think Jerry Reinsdorf will be as eager to get rid of Thomas as Phil Rogers, the writer of that piece in the Tribune. HYes he did invoke the infamous diminshed skills clause, but from the various quotes I've seen of Reinsdorf regarding Thomas, I don't see him going the route of the buyout with the medicore FA market in 2005. Only a bad year would probably lead to the use of the buyout. Reinsdorf recognizes the value of Thomas to the team and probably will opt to keep him.

This offseason seems longer than usual this year for some reason. These last few days have provided for some painful waiting for the pitchers and catchers to report (at which point we'll probably just get a few pictures and quotes anyways. The real fun starts March 2nd, the day of the first spring training game against the Rox). I can actually think of a few reasons why it's less tolerable this year, and actually longer than last years offseason:

1. The 2003 World Series lasted 6 games (Florida over New York) while the 2004 series only lasted 4 games (Boston over St. Louis). Sure it's only a difference of 3 days, but the excitement of the 2003 series was a lot higher with Florida starting down 2-1 before coming back to win the next three. The effect lasted longer because it wasn't as dominant as the Boston performance last October.

2. Last year, the Yankees and D-Rays started the season early in Japan. This means that their spring trainings started earlier and the first games started earlier. The buzz about baseball started a bit earlier too.

3. mlb.com bought the exclusive rights to fantasy baseball for the next 5 years at 50 million dollars. This means that they can control when the fantasy baseball season starts and they have chosen next Thursday as their "Opening Day" for fantasy baseball. Leagues such as ESPN and Yahoo must get a contract with mlb.com in order to offer fantasy baseball and therefore cannot start earlier than mlb.com. In fact, I don't know exactly how it's going to work with Yahoo and ESPN this year in terms of starting dates for fantasy baseball.

4. I'm not sure on this one, but I believe that Baseball Prospectus 2005 is being released a month later than last year. If you're reading this, maybe you can help me on this, but wasn't BP2004 released in mid-January this year? I think it's supposed to begin shipping on Monday, but still it's somewhat late for this. People only read the predictions when they don't have spring training games to follow. At that point it's too late.

So if you think this offseason is progressing more slowly than last year's, as I am, you are probably right. Maybe it's only by a few days and only a few factors are affecting it, but every day and every little factor matters to a diehard baseball fans like us. One more week of waiting is very painful. The three and a half months without baseball can get intolerable at times, except at the height of the free agent season.

Will Carroll Chat

When Ozzie Guillen said that he expected Frank back in June, I think ... well, I'm never sure what Ozzie is saying. Someone recently told me that it's not the accent, that Ozzie doesn't always make much sense in Spanish either.

I've heard May 1 as their target date. I'm not sure if that includes a rehab stint to shake the rust off his big bat.

Pretty funny, but for April at least, and maybe farther, where are the White Sox going to get their power? Konerko, Crazy Carl and Dye are the limits of the power then, and that's not all that much power. Looking at the April schedule, the ChiSox have 5 with the Twins, 6 with the Tribe, and 3 with Oakland. The rest are against the Royals, Tiggers, and Mariners, teams they should beat. Basically, the schedule is a push in terms of difficulty.

Frank, although well off his peak, is still easily the centerpiece of the White Sox. I don't mean to rain on anyone's parade here, but losing him for a month is going to be hard for the rest of the offense to replace. Frank coming back too late, like July, along with an El Duque injury, might turn the White Sox season into 2001 lite. He better hurry back.

The first one is from NBC Sports, and it's pretty good from a source that doens't write often enough on baseball. Their articles are pretty good and without a lot of the biases that the normal sportswriters usually have:

There are some good reasons to think the White Sox can end the Twins’ three-year stranglehold on the division, but DH Frank Thomas rehabbing ankle surgery into spring training and maybe not returning until May isn’t one of them. Otherwise, these changed Sox figure to be better. They no longer will revolve around an overly right-handed power-hitting lineup, and instead have added some speed, balance, defense and most importantly, a much-improved pitching staff.

The article goes on to predict a 90-72 record, a prediction that I find to be pretty fair.

The second one comes from Denver's Rocky Mountain News and is more of an offseason overview than a Spring Training preview, but in my mind it's offseason grading that I most agree with:

What reality says is the White Sox made some nice additions, but their success, as in the past, is going to hinge on the production of designated hitter Frank Thomas. He underwent surgery in October on his left ankle, remains in a walking cast and is uncertain for Opening Day.

Off-season grade: B

That comment is spot on. If we have Thomas producing at the levels he's capable of for at least 4 months and possibly 5, I think this division is there for the taking for the White Sox. Thomas was on his way to a monster 2004 last year before the injury and if he can come back and provide the .400+ OBP that we're used to and the 1 homer for every 15 at bats or less that he can provide, the White Sox will in the division, barring really bad luck.

The writer proceeds to give the Twins, Tigers and Indians a C and the Royals a D. Thankfully, there's a writer who recognizes that resigning Bradke doesnt make a big offseason compared to what some other teams have done this offseason. Personally I'd give the Tigers an F on the basis of that Magglio deal and Percival getting more than he's worth. To hold onto their money and use it wisely next year would have been a lot smarter.

In case you haven't read it already, here's a Q&A with Shingo Takatsu (and his translator, Atsu Tatsuki of course) :

Takatsu: Of course, pitching against some of the Japanese players like (New York's Hideki) Matsui and (Seattle's) Ichiro (Suzuki) comes to mind, but I must say the most memorable one was pitching against the Cubs. I believe that was late June, I came to the mound in the eighth inning ...

Q: It was top of the eighth inning and two out against Sammy Sosa, right?

Takatsu: Yes, U.S. Cellular Field was full that day, and there were a lot of White Sox and Cubs fans in the stadium. I came out in that tight situation and relieved against one of the best players to play this game. I think that was one of my best games in my career.

He "gets" the crosstown rivalry, which more than I can say about a lot of national writers.

Today, SI released on their website a ranking of all of the rotations in the AL. Despite the relative weakness of AL starting rotations, they felt justified putting the White Sox eighth:

1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
3. Twins
4. Indians
5. Angels
6. Blue Jays
7. Athletics
8. White Sox
9. Rangers
10. Tigers
11. Orioles
12. Mariners
13. Royals
14. Devil Rays

Thankfully, they actually list who they think will comprise the rotations, which makes it easier to check the fairness of these predicitions. The way to check this for fairness would be pretty foolproof as well. Let's check their list against the list of rotations by projected VORP for the rotation members that SI lists (difference from subjective SI lists in parentheses):

1. Boston 161.8 (0)
2. New York 158.6 (0)
3. Twins 138.6 (0)
4. White Sox 127.6 (+4)
5. Angels 112.3 (0)
6. Oakland 101.5 (+1)
7. Blue Jays 101.4 (-1)
8. Indians 97.5 (-4)
9. Texas 77.1 (0)
10. Mariners 72.2 (+2)
11. Tigers 70.6 (-1)
12. Royals 67.7 (+1)
13. Orioles 65 (-2)
14. Devil Rays 45.7 (0)

Fellow White Sox fans, I think you would all agree that there is some sort of major problem here. Jacob Luft (the author of the rankings) actually did a pretty good job overall when it came to the rankings, with one glaring exception, the White Sox and the Indians, whom he must have accidentally switched places....or just chose to ignore how much better the Sox' rotation is than the Indians.

I certainly can accept the notion without hesitation that New York and Boston have better rotations. The Twins I feel are probably on par with ours, but I can accept them as being higher. But to see the Indians, Jays, A's and Halos above the White Sox rotation is pathetic. I think the VORP predictions will prove accurate in terms of where the White Sox rotation will be. I think you've got the upper tier with NY and Boston, the second tier with the White Sox and Twins, the third tier with the A's, Halos, Tribe and Jays and the rest of the teams in a fourth tier, except TB who is below everyone.

The egregious ranking of the White Sox rotation as being number 8 in the AL cannot go unnoticed. I expect this trend to continue because SI's rankings usually reflect the general media senitment towards the White Sox in a particular year. Whatever, they'll just be really surprised when the White Sox rotation proves really good.

If you haven't yet read Vince Galloro's column on Magglio over at Exile in Wrigleyville, you really should because it is truly excellent. I personally am more upset at Magglio than he is, but nevertheless it's one of the best overviews of the situation I've read. Definitely better than whatever the print media has been saying about Magglio in terms of truthfulness and quality.

In case you haven't heard already, Dave Wills is leaving ESPN 1000 to join the Tampa Bay Devil Rays broadcast team. I'm sure he'll be great there as he did a really good job with the pre and postgame shows. All Sox fans will surely miss NEEEEEEEEEXT and his references to Cubs fans who call into his show as "drillrods," but clearly this is a step up in the career ladder, even if it's on one of the worst teams in the majors who play in the most depressing stadium in baseball.

This inevitably leads to the question of who will be the next pre and postgame host. It seems most realistic that the replacement will be of the in-house variety. The two names that have been mentioned are Dan MacNeil and Carmen Di Falco. I happen to think that Carmen does a pretty good job with the Bulls postgame shows, but that doesn't mean that I would want him doing the White Sox pre and postgame shows. I would actually rather prefer Dan MacNeil in this role.

I don't know to what degree Carmen DiFalco is a White Sox fan (maybe if someone in a comment could alert me), but I know that Dan MacNeil is a White Sox fan through and through. This says something already, that MacNeil is the ESPN 1000 resident White Sox fan. I think some of his commentary can be shallow at times, but I think if placed in a different role as the White Sox pregame and postgame host that he could be a pretty good one. His reaction to the game would be a lot different to his discussions with Jurko and Harry. The "act" that some claim they don't like that he puts on would certainly be toned down. I endorse him as the next pregame and postgame host. Carmen DiFalco wouldnt be awful by any stretch, but I just get the feeling that he's too disaffected to live the season with the diehard fans or to properly deal with really angry fans like Dave Wills could. I think MacNeil would "live the season" with the listeners of the show a lot better. Of course that's subjective opinion, but that's my subjective opinion.

I'm going to keep my Cubs comments to a minimum, but I feel I have to comment on this. As a Cubs fan, I might be alone in saying that I am sad to see Farnsworth go. Despite all his suckitude and the number of times he walked the bases loaded for no reason, seeing him when he was on his game was worth every moment. There was one game this year in St. Louis where The Farns struck out Albert Pujols on three pitches: Fastball on the outside black, Fastball on the upper-inside corner, slider away off the plate. Afterwards the St. Louis Post Dispatch beat writer told Pat Hughes that that at-bat was the single most overmatched he had ever seen Pujols, including his rookie year. 100 mph fastballs and 90 mph sliders don't come around every day.

From the White Sox standpoint, with him now in Detroit, this deal probably won't mean much. Kyle Farnsworth has the wierd Bret Saberhagen thing going for him, where he alternates amazing performance with utter suckitude.

http://baseball-reference.com/f/farnsky01.shtml
His Era Plusses the last 4 years:
2001 154
2002 55
2003 129
2004 96

Now if Farnsworth has a 2001 type year, with 107 strikeouts to 29 walks in 82 innings, the Tigers could have quite the bullpen. No, that won't put them over the top, but it's certainly something to note.

Magglio just had to take his parting shot at the White Sox as he signed with Detroit a few days ago:

"I don't think someone would sign me for seven years if my knee wasn't all right. That's one of the reasons I didn't sign back with Chicago. Kenny was burying me, saying my knee was not OK." (emphasis mine)

If Magglio's knee was in such great shape, then why the heck did he have to go to Austria for surgery to fix it? Obviously there was some major concerns with his knee and Kenny Williams was just reporting on what he knew about the situation. Maybe Kenny could have given a more "proper" evaluation if Magglio had bothered to share your medical records with the White Sox organization, something which he probably had a responsiblity to do. Well if this is the logic that Magglio gives for not coming back, then he is truly to blame.

Kenny Williams responds:

"I really am at a loss for words. What do you say when you've tried at every turn to accommodate someone, be positive and, in many cases, cover them?"

He continues: "I'm at peace with how we have treated Magglio."

I have to agree with Kenny. The organization is not at fault for this situation at all and I think the fans realize this. Magglio brought this whole thing upon himself. Kenny didn't have any choice but to respond in this manner and I think he has a right to be confused and upset at Magglio's attitude.

Magglio on whether or not the fans will cheer him or jeer him:

"I hope the fans know I did my best for them, and they'll appreciate that."

Well I hope Magglio knows that he gave the organization, the fans and they city of Chicago the middle finger in the way that he left and the events that transpired over the past year and he can expect to be reminded of that for the next 7 years for every time he visits US Cellular Field.

My final goodbye statement regarding Magglio:

I used to be a fan of Magglio Ordonez, but after this whole debacle over the past year, I have turned into a Magglio detractor. From 1999 to May 2004, Magglio was a great asset to the White Sox organization as he was consistantly in the upper-echelon of the right fielders in baseball. He never complained or whined about anything and provided many exciting moments. His first contract extension happened without a hitch, but it was in the second negotiations, the most recent set, that I lost respect for Magglio.

The White Sox offered him a very fair 5 year 70 million dollar contract, one that he probably didnt deserve in that market. Vlad Guerrero had just signed for that sum and Maggs was not as good and 2 years older. Some money was to be deferred, but not so much as to devalue the contract below his market value. Not by a long shot. Magglio decided that this was still not enough money and negotiations broke down.

He then got injured and the way he handled that situation was unprofessional. He flew to Vienna for risky surgery without bothering to inform the team which he was still officially a part of. When you take into account the fact that the White Sox training staff is one of the best in the majors, it makes this fact a little more puzzling. Additionally, the White Sox were not allowed to examine him despite the fact that he was still receiving money from the team for sitting injured. He then hired Scott Boras, the White Sox' least favorite agent.

So today the Detroit Tigers introduced Magglio to the press after Magglio was signed as the last free agent likely to occupy a starting position.


They signed him to a 5 year 75 million dollar contract that can be worth 7 years 105 million if he plays at least 135 games in the preceeding years, which means it must be considering more as a 7 year 105 million dollar contract a 5 year 75 million dollar one. 7 years from now will be Magglio's age 37 season and he will earn 18 million that year if the option vests. This probably will turn out to be the worst contract of the offseason and in my opinion it is the worst contract given since the previous era of 100+ million dollar contracts. Carlos Beltran was signed for 14 million dollars more over the same period, and he is younger and better. Magglio has only a few more seasons at his best. Certainly he won't be as good as he is today in 2011. The opt-out clause might be the only thing that can save the Tigers from this terrible deal, but even then, about 12 million will have already been tossed away on Magglio if his health is not in good shape.

If the Tigers were looking to become contenders with this deal, they succeeded in the opposite. They will now be saddled with one of the worst contracts in baseball until 2011 (most likely). It will prevent them from signing big free agents in the future because of their financial commitment to Magglio.

Additionally, we have not addressed Magglio's inability to hit at Comerica Park
Career at Comerica:
G 34
AB 135
HR 1
BA .259
OBP .320
SLG .348

There's no way to describe that except as pretty bad. 1 homer in 135 at bats aint going to cut it. And we're not exactly talking about a tiny sample size. There is a large enough sample to raise major concern.

Another thing is who were the Tigers bidding against? Themselves? Boras is the master of this and it's likely that the Tigers fell into the trap of negotiating with his demands instead of realizing that Magglio should have accepted their demands because no one was offering near what they were.

Joe Sheehan said before the signing:
"If Magglio Ordonez signs for anything close to what Scott Boras is apparently asking for--five years at more than $10 million per--then the signing team is completely insane. Ordonez had a terrific five-year peak for the White Sox, developing power and plate discipline to go with the .300 batting average he showed up in the majors with...

Even if Ordonez were to receive a clean bill of health, the five-year contract for more than $50 million would be a huge risk, because players decline from where he is. Add in the injury risk, and the chance that this contract would end up as an albatross is huge. You can address some of that in the contract, but what do you do when Ordonez is healthy, but slips to .280/.340/.460 with below-average defense in right field?"

This contract is bad enough to do irreparable harm to the Detroit Tigers franchise for years to come and stops any progress they have made to a grinding halt. They might be decent, but they have no shot of ever assembling the talent necessary to contend, even in the AL Central unless they get blessed with a lot of young, cheap talent and smart trades, but a signing like this makes it apparent that we're not dealing with a franchise that is likely to do that.

If you're a Tiger fan, this is a sad day in the history of your franchise, whether or not you realize it at this point. I would be hoping and praying that Magglio goes on the DL with his knee problem for 25 days with the problem in order to get out of this unspeakably bad contract.

I really don't mean to be mean or overstate this situation with Magglio signing. It's not a bitterness issue. I am not sad to see Magglio go and the White Sox sign players such as Dye, Iguchi, Hermanson, Pierzynski, to trade for Garcia, etc. The White Sox are vastly better off without him in my opinion. This contract really was that bad.

I don't have a clue what it says, but the pictoral representations seems to be fairly accurate (the Jose Valentin one in particular is quite funny).

The NFL season is over and the Patriots are again Super Bowl champions. I happen to be a person who has a strong dislike for the Patriots and I'm getting more antagonistic about the NFL. I hope that this dispels the notion that the NFL is a lot more competitive than the MLB as when one team wins the SB 3 times out of 4, it's hard to take that comment seriously, despite what promotors of the sports might say.

Now everyone complains about the competitiveness gap in baseball, but the fact remains that in the last five seasons, we have seen 5 distinct World Series champions, two from the NL and three from the AL (Yankees, Diamondbacks, Angels, Marlins, Red Sox). It seems as though the big-spending teams arent guarenteed to win such as in European soccer leagues. It is quite possible to win with a competant GM and a mid-sized budget. Obviously there has to be a threshold to be competitve. I think the owners should have a minimum that they have to spend in the CBA to force a bottom line of competition and not allow certain players to make more than certain teams spend. In today's market, a team with a 60 million dollar payroll could win the World Series if it is effectively run and a team that has an 100 million dolllar payroll can lose 90 games. Baseball is easily as competitve as other sports, though there are some teams which perceivably cannot win because of inept ownership (See Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh), but there are other teams such as Milwaukee that might do a lot of good this year with a low to medium budget and a strong farm system.

Baseball is competitive, and just because the AL East has the same top two every years doesnt mean that other divisions arent competitive. For instance, it is unclear who is the best team in every division except the NL Central, in which the Cardinals ran away with it last year. Divisions such as the ALC, ALW, NLW and NLE have at least three teams in which it could be reasonably argued that they could win.

Just had to get that out on the table.

I'm now on record picking the Eagles, with something to prove, 27-24.

Sosa's the story right now in all of baseball, so I won't be afraid to comment further on him:

In today's Prospectus Today, Joe Sheehan makes an offhand comment that Sosa's ".375-.390 OBP will be a big boost for the Orioles' offense." I take major issue with this statement because the range of OBPs is nowhere near a given. Sosa has eclipsed the .375 OBP level in 4 of his 16 major league seasons. Granted all of those have come since 1998, but to expect this range is unrealistic. Even the year that Sammy hit 66 homers, his OBP was a good, but not great .377. His really great year offensively was his 2001 where his OBP was .437 and he also hit 64 homers. But last year his OBP was only .332 and even in 2003 it was only .358. His last great season, 2002, saw a .399 OBP from him. I think it's unrealistic to expect much more than another 2003 season out of Sosa and that would mean more of a .350-.365 OBP, certainly not a .375-.390 OBP. That being said, he'll still be beneficial to the Orioles next year, but Sheehan's apparently offhand comment cannot go without challenge because the Orioles simply cannot depend on Sammy's OBP being that high next year.

Sorry for all of the Cubs stuff today, but this just looks so weird:

This is Jeromy Burnitz's ZiPS projection:

Burnitz, Jeromy - 2005 ZiPS Projection

---------------------------------------------------------

AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB    BA   OBP   SLG

---------------------------------------------------------

499  62  116  23  2  29  75  53 126   5  .232  .311  .461

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primer/discussion/26030/


Compare to Jose Valentin last year:

AB 450
R 73
H 97
2B 20
3B 3
HR 30
RBI 70
BB 43
SO 139
SB 8
BA .216
OBP .287
SLG% .473

The only major difference is that Burnitz is projected for a slightly higher Batting Avg and OBP, but otherwise the Cubs just replaced Sosa with the Outfield version of Jose Valentin. I remember last year how whenever I saw Valentin's name in the lineup I cringed because the best one could hope for realistically was a 1 for 4 game with only one strikeout. It got real bad last year for Jose and was a terrible way to go out, but the Cubs certainly are a worse team than they were a few days ago. From the Cubs point of view, I don't think this was a good trade. Sammy Sosa for Jerry Hairston, an unproven young player with only one season worth trading for, two marginal prospects and Jeromy Burnitz is a step down. The Cubs would be smart to at least use the DuBois/Hollandsworth platoon in one of the outfield positions, but Baker's infatuation with veterans might make this unlikely. This lineup, any way you order it is not going to strike fear in the hearts of many NL pitchers:

Hairston/Walker
Patterson
Nomar
Ramirez
Lee
Burnitz
Barrett
Dubois/Hollandsworth/Hairston?

I will now go on the record as predicting the Cardinals to win the NL Central, with the Cubs finishing second or third. This Sosa trade and Burnitz replacement just cements my previously unrecorded predictions

According to the countdown clock on the official White Sox homepage, there's only14 days, 19 hours and 24 minutes until pitchers and catchers report. But you probably knew that already if you're like me. Baseball season is quickly coming upon us....

I'm going to agree with Henry that there weren't many great pitching signings this offseason, but there were two which he didnt mention that I didnt think were all that bad. The first is Odalis Perez resigning with LA for 3 years and 24 million. Perez remains one of the more underrated starters in baseball, which is in part due to his shalacking in the playoffs and his poor 2003 season.

And of course the other is the El Duque signing. PECOTA only projects 113 innings, but PECOTA also doesnt take into account the White Sox' training staff being one of the best in the majors, so it's likely that Orlando Hernandez will fall on the upper end of that projection. PECOTA predicts a 24.2 VORP over those 112 innings, so if he could stay healthy, there's a great chance that he might be one of the best pickups this offseason on the pitching side of things.

Pitching was really expensive this offseason and teams that didn't focus on it early enough and weren't interested in paying for it didn't get any (see the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles).

For my first post, I was considering talking about what I thought were the best and worst moves this past offseason. I thought long and hard, and realized that you can pick out a bad move much more easily than a good move. For example, there have been plenty of people bitching about the signings of Pedro, Eric Milton, Russ Ortiz, Derek Lowe, etc., but no very good pitcher signings come to mind. The small contract of everyone's favorite Esteban Loiaza might be a plus, especially if he ends up anywhere near his '03, same with the Wade Miller deal, but no outstanding signings really speak up to me. I guess that speaks to how much we expect out of a GM relative to what should reasonably be expected.

Hey all, I'm Henry. A couple of caveots on me here:
1. Yes, I am a Cubs Fan, I live on the North Side about half a mile from Wrigley
2. I didn't have a choice of teams to root for, I'm a fourth generation Cubs fan
3. I enjoy baseball, talking baseball, thinking about baseball, and blogging about baseball
4. I have absolutely nothing against the White Sox, and I root for them much more than any other team non-Northside team.
5. I also like the Dodgers, but in a loose sense.